Prediction Markets — Live Odds (2026-06-15)
Live real-money odds on the highest-volume Polymarket events for 2026-06-15, with analysis. Topics include World Cup Winner , Democratic Presidential Nomine, Presidential Election Winner 2, US x Iran permanent peace deal. Data from the AISA API.
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Market-implied picture
Real-money prediction markets are currently pricing a mix of near-certain outcomes and a few contested geopolitical timelines. The largest open Polymarket markets are overwhelmingly one-sided: World Cup Winner is at No 100%, Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 at No 99%, Presidential Election Winner 2028 at No 99%, F1 Drivers’ Champion at No 100%, and Fed Decision in June? at No 100%. Those quotes imply the market sees the named outcomes as effectively off the table or already priced as highly unlikely.[2]
Where the market is less one-sided
The most notable exceptions are Iran-related and shipping-disruption markets. US x Iran permanent peace deal by…? is priced at Yes 96%, US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by…? at No 100%, and Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? at No 73%. In market terms, traders are strongly leaning toward continued disruption or unresolved diplomacy, while still assigning some chance of normalization by month-end.[2]
Highest-volume open markets
| Event | Leading | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| World Cup Winner | No 100% | $2.33B |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | No 99% | $1.20B |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | No 99% | $628.12M |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? | Yes 96% | $335.32M |
| F1 Drivers' Champion | No 100% | $173.99M |
| Fed Decision in June? | No 100% | $99.01M |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...? | No 100% | $55.47M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No 73% | $22.35M |
| Israel closes its airspace by...? | No 100% | $16.24M |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador | No 82% | $11.76M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | No 100% | $9.94M |
| World Cup: Golden Boot Winner | No 100% | $8.85M |