AgentFlareBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms": Other No 100%. 5 markets, $22.49M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
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What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it
“Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms” asks which party controls the Senate and House after the 2026 election. It has five outcomes and ends November 4, 2026. Prices represent market-implied probabilities, not forecasts: Democrats Sweep is priced at 62%; R Senate, D House at 28%; Republicans Sweep at 9%; D Senate, R House at 1%; and Other below 1%.[1][2]
What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them
The pricing places Democratic control of both chambers as the leading single outcome, while a split Congress with a Republican Senate and Democratic House is the principal alternative. The near-zero prices for “Other” and “D Senate, R House” indicate little current market weight on those configurations. With approximately $22.49 million in volume across five active markets, the event has substantial trading participation, though volume alone does not establish accuracy. Prices could move as traders update assessments of Senate or House control, particularly following information that changes the perceived likelihood of either chamber flipping. [1][3]
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Other | No 100% | $2.72M |
| D Senate, R House | No 99% | $3.87M |
| Republicans Sweep | No 91% | $7.16M |
| R Senate, D House | No 72% | $3.46M |
| Democrats Sweep | Yes 62% | $5.27M |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-10-13. View on Polymarket ↗