AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Fri, Oct 16, 2026
Traders price a 39.5% chance Bitcoin hits 87,500 in October, the top upside strike
Twelve strike markets let traders price whether Bitcoin touches a set of price levels before November 1. The 87,500 upside strike leads at 39.5%, with the 77,500 downside strike close behind at 37.5%.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
This event asks what price Bitcoin will hit in October, split into separate markets for each price level. Upside markets carry an up arrow and downside markets a down arrow, and each market's Yes probability reflects the chance that its level is reached. The event ends 2026-11-01, has a total volume of $7.47M, and recorded $857,087 in 24-hour volume. The resolution text is the question itself, so the touch condition is the core test for every strike.
How traders price it now and how that moved
The leading contract, up to 87,500, is priced at 39.5%, while the down contract at 77,500 sits at 37.5%. The 87,500 upside market started the 31-point history window at 66.5%, peaked at 89.0%, bottomed at 26.5%, and now stands at 39.5%, a decline of 27.0 percentage points overall. Nearby strikes show similar bands, with up to 90,000 at 25.5% and down to 75,000 at 23.5%.
How concentrated the odds are
Probability falls off quickly as strikes move further from the current pricing band. Upside odds run 25.5% at 90,000, 13.5% at 92,500, 6.7% at 95,000, 3.2% at 97,500, 1.9% at 100,000, 0.9% at 105,000, and just 0.1% at 150,000. Downside odds are more evenly spread, with 23.5% at 75,000 and 12.5% at 72,500. The spread suggests traders see a narrow central range rather than a broad tail.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| ↑ 87,500 | 39.5% | $609,695 |
| ↓ 77,500 | 37.5% | $439,024 |
| ↑ 90,000 | 25.5% | $366,536 |
| ↓ 75,000 | 23.5% | $289,118 |
| ↑ 92,500 | 13.5% | $412,584 |
| ↓ 72,500 | 12.5% | $254,476 |
| ↑ 95,000 | 6.7% | $200,227 |
| ↑ 97,500 | 3.2% | $236,577 |
| ↑ 100,000 | 1.9% | $304,263 |
| ↑ 102,500 | 1.1% | $260,311 |
| ↑ 105,000 | 0.9% | $546,580 |
| ↑ 150,000 | 0.1% | $614,159 |
What decides this market
- The question asks whether Bitcoin hits each listed price during October, so touching a level counts, not closing above it.
- Each strike is a separate Yes or No market, so probabilities across levels do not need to add up to one.
- The window closes 2026-11-01, so any move after that date falls outside what these markets measure.
Resolution rules
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a Yes price of 39.5% mean?
It is the market-implied probability that Bitcoin hits 87,500 during October, based on current trading. It is not a forecast or advice, and it can move quickly as trades occur.
Why are there separate up and down markets?
Each arrow marks a different strike direction. Up markets cover prices above today's level and down markets cover prices below it, so each level is priced on its own.
When does this event end?
The event ends on 2026-11-01. Its total volume is $7.47M, and the 24-hour volume was $857,087 at the time of this snapshot.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.