AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Fri, Oct 16, 2026
Traders price 'No change' at 70.5% for the October Fed decision, ahead of a 25 bps increase at 27.5%
Polymarket's October 2026 Fed decision event shows 'No change' at 70.5% implied probability, up 7.0 percentage points over the recent window, with a 25 bps increase at 27.5%.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The event asks what change the Federal Reserve makes to the upper bound of its target federal funds rate at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting, measured in basis points versus the level before that meeting. Each bracket is a separate market: no change, 25 bps increase, 25 bps decrease, 50+ bps increase and 50+ bps decrease. Resolution uses the FOMC statement, and the market may resolve once that statement with relevant data is issued. Changes not shown in the options round up to the nearest 25 and resolve to the relevant bracket. The event ends 2026-10-29.
How traders price it now and how it moved
Traders price 'No change' at 70.5%, with a 25 bps increase at 27.5%, while the 25 bps decrease sits at 0.4%, 50+ bps increase at 0.4% and 50+ bps decrease at 0.1%. The 'No change' line, tracked across 61 half-day points, started at 63.5%, peaked at 84.5% and bottomed at 30.5%, finishing up 7.0 percentage points. Total volume is $42.27M, with $2.44M traded in the last 24 hours. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.
How concentrated the odds are
Odds are concentrated in two brackets: 'No change' at 70.5% and 25 bps increase at 27.5%. The three remaining brackets each sit at 0.4% or below, with 50+ bps decrease at 0.1%. Five active markets resolve on one FOMC outcome, so the tail brackets carry small implied probabilities. The 'No change' high of 84.5% and low of 30.5% show that the price has swung widely across the window.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| No change | 70.5% | $12.82M |
| 25 bps increase | 27.5% | $9.77M |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.4% | $7.15M |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.4% | $5.80M |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.1% | $6.73M |
What decides this market
- Resolves to basis-point change in the federal funds target upper bound versus its level before the October 2026 meeting.
- The FOMC statement after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting is the source, and resolution can occur once it is issued.
- Moves not shown in the options round up to the nearest 25 and resolve to the relevant bracket.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What happens if the Fed changes rates by 12.5 bps?
It is treated as 25 bps and resolves to the 25 bps bracket, following the market's rounding rule for changes that are not shown in the displayed options.
Where is the official outcome published?
The FOMC statement after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting is the resolution source. The Federal Reserve's open market page also publishes the level and change of the target rate.
Do these prices predict the decision?
No. The prices are market-implied probabilities of Yes for each bracket, reflecting current trading activity. They are not forecasts or advice.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.