{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Fed Decision in October? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Polymarket's October 2026 Fed decision event shows 'No change' at 70.5% implied probability, up 7.0 percentage points over the recent window, with a 25 bps increase at 27.5%. 5 markets, $42.27M volume on Polymarket.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-16",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$42.27M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$2.44M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "5"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "No change 70.5%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-10-29"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Fed Decision in October?",
    "slug": "fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
    "volume_usd": 42266346.165623985,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2438541.9254830005,
    "end_date": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "No change",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.705
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.295
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 12819357.540872995
      },
      {
        "question": "25 bps increase",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.275
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.725
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 9765813.266863989
      },
      {
        "question": "25 bps decrease",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0035
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9965
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 7148409.686288001
      },
      {
        "question": "50+ bps increase",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0035
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9965
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 5801060.954051998
      },
      {
        "question": "50+ bps decrease",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0015
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9985
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 6731704.717547004
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "09-16",
        "v": 0.635
      },
      {
        "t": "09-17",
        "v": 0.535
      },
      {
        "t": "09-17",
        "v": 0.525
      },
      {
        "t": "09-18",
        "v": 0.495
      },
      {
        "t": "09-18",
        "v": 0.465
      },
      {
        "t": "09-19",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "09-19",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "09-20",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "09-20",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "09-21",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "09-21",
        "v": 0.485
      },
      {
        "t": "09-22",
        "v": 0.465
      },
      {
        "t": "09-22",
        "v": 0.495
      },
      {
        "t": "09-23",
        "v": 0.455
      },
      {
        "t": "09-23",
        "v": 0.455
      },
      {
        "t": "09-24",
        "v": 0.345
      },
      {
        "t": "09-24",
        "v": 0.315
      },
      {
        "t": "09-25",
        "v": 0.325
      },
      {
        "t": "09-25",
        "v": 0.325
      },
      {
        "t": "09-26",
        "v": 0.365
      },
      {
        "t": "09-26",
        "v": 0.335
      },
      {
        "t": "09-27",
        "v": 0.335
      },
      {
        "t": "09-27",
        "v": 0.335
      },
      {
        "t": "09-28",
        "v": 0.335
      },
      {
        "t": "09-28",
        "v": 0.325
      },
      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.305
      },
      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.305
      },
      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.555
      },
      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.555
      },
      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.655
      },
      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.635
      },
      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.745
      },
      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.755
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.825
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.825
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.825
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.825
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.825
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.835
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.805
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.815
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.835
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.825
      },
      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.835
      },
      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.845
      },
      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.845
      },
      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.845
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.835
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.835
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.835
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.835
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.835
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.835
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.805
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.805
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.805
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.805
      },
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.705
      },
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.725
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.705
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.705
      }
    ],
    "analysis": [
      {
        "h": "What the market asks and how it resolves",
        "body": "The event asks what change the Federal Reserve makes to the upper bound of its target federal funds rate at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting, measured in basis points versus the level before that meeting. Each bracket is a separate market: no change, 25 bps increase, 25 bps decrease, 50+ bps increase and 50+ bps decrease. Resolution uses the FOMC statement, and the market may resolve once that statement with relevant data is issued. Changes not shown in the options round up to the nearest 25 and resolve to the relevant bracket. The event ends 2026-10-29."
      },
      {
        "h": "How traders price it now and how it moved",
        "body": "Traders price 'No change' at 70.5%, with a 25 bps increase at 27.5%, while the 25 bps decrease sits at 0.4%, 50+ bps increase at 0.4% and 50+ bps decrease at 0.1%. The 'No change' line, tracked across 61 half-day points, started at 63.5%, peaked at 84.5% and bottomed at 30.5%, finishing up 7.0 percentage points. Total volume is $42.27M, with $2.44M traded in the last 24 hours. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts."
      },
      {
        "h": "How concentrated the odds are",
        "body": "Odds are concentrated in two brackets: 'No change' at 70.5% and 25 bps increase at 27.5%. The three remaining brackets each sit at 0.4% or below, with 50+ bps decrease at 0.1%. Five active markets resolve on one FOMC outcome, so the tail brackets carry small implied probabilities. The 'No change' high of 84.5% and low of 30.5% show that the price has swung widely across the window."
      }
    ],
    "drivers": [
      "Resolves to basis-point change in the federal funds target upper bound versus its level before the October 2026 meeting.",
      "The FOMC statement after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting is the source, and resolution can occur once it is issued.",
      "Moves not shown in the options round up to the nearest 25 and resolve to the relevant bracket."
    ],
    "faq": [
      {
        "q": "What happens if the Fed changes rates by 12.5 bps?",
        "a": "It is treated as 25 bps and resolves to the 25 bps bracket, following the market's rounding rule for changes that are not shown in the displayed options."
      },
      {
        "q": "Where is the official outcome published?",
        "a": "The FOMC statement after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting is the resolution source. The Federal Reserve's open market page also publishes the level and change of the target rate."
      },
      {
        "q": "Do these prices predict the decision?",
        "a": "No. The prices are market-implied probabilities of Yes for each bracket, reflecting current trading activity. They are not forecasts or advice."
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Fed",
      "fomc",
      "Trump",
      "Economy",
      "Fed Rates",
      "Kevin Warsh",
      "Global Rates",
      "Economic Policy"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Polymarket's October 2026 Fed decision event shows 'No change' at 70.5% implied probability, up 7.0 percentage points over the recent window, with a 25 bps increase at 27.5%.\n\n## What the market asks and how it resolves\n\nThe event asks what change the Federal Reserve makes to the upper bound of its target federal funds rate at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting, measured in basis points versus the level before that meeting. Each bracket is a separate market: no change, 25 bps increase, 25 bps decrease, 50+ bps increase and 50+ bps decrease. Resolution uses the FOMC statement, and the market may resolve once that statement with relevant data is issued. Changes not shown in the options round up to the nearest 25 and resolve to the relevant bracket. The event ends 2026-10-29.\n\n## How traders price it now and how it moved\n\nTraders price 'No change' at 70.5%, with a 25 bps increase at 27.5%, while the 25 bps decrease sits at 0.4%, 50+ bps increase at 0.4% and 50+ bps decrease at 0.1%. The 'No change' line, tracked across 61 half-day points, started at 63.5%, peaked at 84.5% and bottomed at 30.5%, finishing up 7.0 percentage points. Total volume is $42.27M, with $2.44M traded in the last 24 hours. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.\n\n## How concentrated the odds are\n\nOdds are concentrated in two brackets: 'No change' at 70.5% and 25 bps increase at 27.5%. The three remaining brackets each sit at 0.4% or below, with 50+ bps decrease at 0.1%. Five active markets resolve on one FOMC outcome, so the tail brackets carry small implied probabilities. The 'No change' high of 84.5% and low of 30.5% show that the price has swung widely across the window.\n\n## Current odds\n\n- No change: 70.5% (vol $12.82M)\n- 25 bps increase: 27.5% (vol $9.77M)\n- 25 bps decrease: 0.4% (vol $7.15M)\n- 50+ bps increase: 0.4% (vol $5.80M)\n- 50+ bps decrease: 0.1% (vol $6.73M)\n\n## What decides this market\n\n- Resolves to basis-point change in the federal funds target upper bound versus its level before the October 2026 meeting.\n- The FOMC statement after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting is the source, and resolution can occur once it is issued.\n- Moves not shown in the options round up to the nearest 25 and resolve to the relevant bracket.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**What happens if the Fed changes rates by 12.5 bps?**\nIt is treated as 25 bps and resolves to the 25 bps bracket, following the market's rounding rule for changes that are not shown in the displayed options.\n\n**Where is the official outcome published?**\nThe FOMC statement after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting is the resolution source. The Federal Reserve's open market page also publishes the level and change of the target rate.\n\n**Do these prices predict the decision?**\nNo. The prices are market-implied probabilities of Yes for each bracket, reflecting current trading activity. They are not forecasts or advice.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Fed Decision in October? on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
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    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
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  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}