AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Traders price Netanyahu at 47.5% to be the next sworn-in Israeli PM, ahead of Eizenkot at 32.6%
Polymarket's Israeli prime minister event prices who will be formally sworn in after the 2026 election. Netanyahu leads at 47.5%, and the odds are market-implied, not forecasts.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
This event asks who will be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 parliamentary election. Legislative elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026, and an early election would shift the target to whoever is sworn in after that vote. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count, and a formal swearing-in is required. If nobody is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. The Government of Israel is the primary source, with credible consensus reporting as backup.
How traders price it now and how it moved
Netanyahu leads at 47.5%, with Gadi Eizenkot at 32.6% and Naftali Bennett at 6.5%. Avigdor Lieberman sits at 2.7%. Over the last 47 half-day points, Netanyahu's price started at 28.5%, reached a low of 26.5%, and climbed to 46.5%, which is also its high. The move totals +18.0 percentage points. These are market-implied probabilities reflecting trader pricing, not forecasts.
How concentrated the odds are
Pricing is concentrated in a few names. Netanyahu and Eizenkot hold most of the probability, while Bennett and Lieberman trail in single digits. The remaining eight candidates each show 0.1%, including Yossi Cohen, Yair Golan, Benny Gantz, Gideon Sa’ar, Yariv Levin, Yair Lapid, Itamar Ben Gvir and Moshe Feiglin. Across 12 active markets, the event has $70.59M in total volume and $13.46M in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 47.5% | $23.00M |
| Gadi Eizenkot | 32.6% | $5.49M |
| Naftali Bennett | 6.5% | $5.27M |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2.7% | $4.34M |
| Yossi Cohen | 0.1% | $4.05M |
| Yair Golan | 0.1% | $2.88M |
| Benny Gantz | 0.1% | $2.37M |
| Gideon Sa’ar | 0.1% | $2.50M |
| Yariv Levin | 0.1% | $2.03M |
| Yair Lapid | 0.1% | $2.02M |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 0.1% | $2.23M |
| Moshe Feiglin | 0.1% | $2.60M |
What decides this market
- The winner must be formally sworn in, so an announced or projected result alone does not resolve the market.
- Interim or caretaker prime ministers are excluded, so a continuing caretaker role will not count toward resolution.
- An early election would reset the target to whoever is sworn in after that vote, changing the relevant date.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this marke…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Why is Netanyahu priced so much higher than the other candidates?
Netanyahu sits at 47.5%, the highest in the event, while Eizenkot is at 32.6%. Prices reflect traders' implied probabilities of a Yes outcome, not a forecast of the election.
What happens if no one is sworn in by the deadline?
If no such prime minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. The resolution text sets that fallback explicitly.
Does winning the election alone resolve this market?
No. The resolution text requires the individual to be formally sworn in as Prime Minister. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count toward resolution.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.