{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Polymarket's Israeli prime minister event prices who will be formally sworn in after the 2026 election. Netanyahu leads at 47.5%, and the odds are market-implied, not forecasts. 12 markets, $70.59M volume on Polymarket.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-28",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-28T00:37:01.991Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$70.59M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$13.46M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "12"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "Benjamin Netanyahu 47.5%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-10-28"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?",
    "slug": "who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-28T00:37:01.991Z",
    "volume_usd": 70586642.543292,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13460316.675076002,
    "end_date": "2026-10-28T03:59:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.475
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.525
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 23001634.443547003
      },
      {
        "question": "Gadi Eizenkot",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.3265
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.6735
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 5488693.682903001
      },
      {
        "question": "Naftali Bennett",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.065
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.935
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 5272246.671693999
      },
      {
        "question": "Avigdor Lieberman",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.027
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.973
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 4343147.993071999
      },
      {
        "question": "Yossi Cohen",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0015
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9985
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 4047282.490041
      },
      {
        "question": "Yair Golan",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0015
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9985
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2884474.6519520003
      },
      {
        "question": "Benny Gantz",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.001
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.999
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2372220.8431400005
      },
      {
        "question": "Gideon Sa’ar",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.001
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.999
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2503200.0135749998
      },
      {
        "question": "Yariv Levin",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.001
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.999
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2033967.4710680002
      },
      {
        "question": "Yair Lapid",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2016705.4745580007
      },
      {
        "question": "Itamar Ben Gvir",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2234059.938733
      },
      {
        "question": "Moshe Feiglin",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2600653.8532209997
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "09-28",
        "v": 0.285
      },
      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.295
      },
      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.295
      },
      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.305
      },
      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.335
      },
      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.325
      },
      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.325
      },
      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.325
      },
      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.335
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.335
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.345
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.355
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.365
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.365
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.365
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.355
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.355
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.355
      },
      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.355
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.355
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.355
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.345
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.335
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.325
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.305
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.305
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.315
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.305
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.305
      },
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.275
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.305
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.305
      },
      {
        "t": "10-17",
        "v": 0.295
      },
      {
        "t": "10-17",
        "v": 0.275
      },
      {
        "t": "10-19",
        "v": 0.295
      },
      {
        "t": "10-19",
        "v": 0.285
      },
      {
        "t": "10-20",
        "v": 0.285
      },
      {
        "t": "10-20",
        "v": 0.295
      },
      {
        "t": "10-21",
        "v": 0.275
      },
      {
        "t": "10-21",
        "v": 0.275
      },
      {
        "t": "10-22",
        "v": 0.305
      },
      {
        "t": "10-23",
        "v": 0.295
      },
      {
        "t": "10-25",
        "v": 0.275
      },
      {
        "t": "10-25",
        "v": 0.285
      },
      {
        "t": "10-26",
        "v": 0.265
      },
      {
        "t": "10-28",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "10-28",
        "v": 0.465
      }
    ],
    "analysis": [
      {
        "h": "What the market asks and how it resolves",
        "body": "This event asks who will be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 parliamentary election. Legislative elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026, and an early election would shift the target to whoever is sworn in after that vote. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count, and a formal swearing-in is required. If nobody is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. The Government of Israel is the primary source, with credible consensus reporting as backup."
      },
      {
        "h": "How traders price it now and how it moved",
        "body": "Netanyahu leads at 47.5%, with Gadi Eizenkot at 32.6% and Naftali Bennett at 6.5%. Avigdor Lieberman sits at 2.7%. Over the last 47 half-day points, Netanyahu's price started at 28.5%, reached a low of 26.5%, and climbed to 46.5%, which is also its high. The move totals +18.0 percentage points. These are market-implied probabilities reflecting trader pricing, not forecasts."
      },
      {
        "h": "How concentrated the odds are",
        "body": "Pricing is concentrated in a few names. Netanyahu and Eizenkot hold most of the probability, while Bennett and Lieberman trail in single digits. The remaining eight candidates each show 0.1%, including Yossi Cohen, Yair Golan, Benny Gantz, Gideon Sa’ar, Yariv Levin, Yair Lapid, Itamar Ben Gvir and Moshe Feiglin. Across 12 active markets, the event has $70.59M in total volume and $13.46M in the last 24 hours."
      }
    ],
    "drivers": [
      "The winner must be formally sworn in, so an announced or projected result alone does not resolve the market.",
      "Interim or caretaker prime ministers are excluded, so a continuing caretaker role will not count toward resolution.",
      "An early election would reset the target to whoever is sworn in after that vote, changing the relevant date."
    ],
    "faq": [
      {
        "q": "Why is Netanyahu priced so much higher than the other candidates?",
        "a": "Netanyahu sits at 47.5%, the highest in the event, while Eizenkot is at 32.6%. Prices reflect traders' implied probabilities of a Yes outcome, not a forecast of the election."
      },
      {
        "q": "What happens if no one is sworn in by the deadline?",
        "a": "If no such prime minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. The resolution text sets that fallback explicitly."
      },
      {
        "q": "Does winning the election alone resolve this market?",
        "a": "No. The resolution text requires the individual to be formally sworn in as Prime Minister. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count toward resolution."
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Main Election",
      "Israel Election",
      "Politics",
      "Middle East",
      "Israel",
      "Geopolitics",
      "Elections",
      "World"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Polymarket's Israeli prime minister event prices who will be formally sworn in after the 2026 election. Netanyahu leads at 47.5%, and the odds are market-implied, not forecasts.\n\n## What the market asks and how it resolves\n\nThis event asks who will be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 parliamentary election. Legislative elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026, and an early election would shift the target to whoever is sworn in after that vote. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count, and a formal swearing-in is required. If nobody is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. The Government of Israel is the primary source, with credible consensus reporting as backup.\n\n## How traders price it now and how it moved\n\nNetanyahu leads at 47.5%, with Gadi Eizenkot at 32.6% and Naftali Bennett at 6.5%. Avigdor Lieberman sits at 2.7%. Over the last 47 half-day points, Netanyahu's price started at 28.5%, reached a low of 26.5%, and climbed to 46.5%, which is also its high. The move totals +18.0 percentage points. These are market-implied probabilities reflecting trader pricing, not forecasts.\n\n## How concentrated the odds are\n\nPricing is concentrated in a few names. Netanyahu and Eizenkot hold most of the probability, while Bennett and Lieberman trail in single digits. The remaining eight candidates each show 0.1%, including Yossi Cohen, Yair Golan, Benny Gantz, Gideon Sa’ar, Yariv Levin, Yair Lapid, Itamar Ben Gvir and Moshe Feiglin. Across 12 active markets, the event has $70.59M in total volume and $13.46M in the last 24 hours.\n\n## Current odds\n\n- Benjamin Netanyahu: 47.5% (vol $23.00M)\n- Gadi Eizenkot: 32.6% (vol $5.49M)\n- Naftali Bennett: 6.5% (vol $5.27M)\n- Avigdor Lieberman: 2.7% (vol $4.34M)\n- Yossi Cohen: 0.1% (vol $4.05M)\n- Yair Golan: 0.1% (vol $2.88M)\n- Benny Gantz: 0.1% (vol $2.37M)\n- Gideon Sa’ar: 0.1% (vol $2.50M)\n- Yariv Levin: 0.1% (vol $2.03M)\n- Yair Lapid: 0.1% (vol $2.02M)\n- Itamar Ben Gvir: 0.1% (vol $2.23M)\n- Moshe Feiglin: 0.1% (vol $2.60M)\n\n## What decides this market\n\n- The winner must be formally sworn in, so an announced or projected result alone does not resolve the market.\n- Interim or caretaker prime ministers are excluded, so a continuing caretaker role will not count toward resolution.\n- An early election would reset the target to whoever is sworn in after that vote, changing the relevant date.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**Why is Netanyahu priced so much higher than the other candidates?**\nNetanyahu sits at 47.5%, the highest in the event, while Eizenkot is at 32.6%. Prices reflect traders' implied probabilities of a Yes outcome, not a forecast of the election.\n\n**What happens if no one is sworn in by the deadline?**\nIf no such prime minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. The resolution text sets that fallback explicitly.\n\n**Does winning the election alone resolve this market?**\nNo. The resolution text requires the individual to be formally sworn in as Prime Minister. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count toward resolution.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "name": "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/republican-presidential-nominee-2028.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fed Decision in October?",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "MLB World Series Champion 2026",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/mlb-world-series-champion-2026.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/balance-of-power-2026-midterms.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Israeli Legislative Election Winner",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/israeli-legislative-election-winner.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "What price will Bitcoin hit in October?",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-october-2026.html"
    }
  ],
  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}