{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Dataset",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Prediction Markets — Live Odds (2026-06-15)",
  "description": "Live real-money odds on the highest-volume Polymarket events for 2026-06-15, with analysis. Topics include World Cup Winner , Democratic Presidential Nomine, Presidential Election Winner 2, US x Iran permanent peace deal. Data from the AISA API.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/index.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-15",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-15T01:19:16.018Z",
  "facts": [],
  "data": {
    "count": 12,
    "events": [
      {
        "title": "World Cup Winner ",
        "slug": "world-cup-winner",
        "leading": "No 100%",
        "volume_usd": 2327542052.203786
      },
      {
        "title": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028",
        "slug": "democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",
        "leading": "No 99%",
        "volume_usd": 1196819676.0863633
      },
      {
        "title": "Presidential Election Winner 2028",
        "slug": "presidential-election-winner-2028",
        "leading": "No 99%",
        "volume_usd": 628124994.0764143
      },
      {
        "title": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?",
        "slug": "us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",
        "leading": "Yes 96%",
        "volume_usd": 335316156.8461752
      },
      {
        "title": "F1 Drivers' Champion",
        "slug": "2026-f1-drivers-champion",
        "leading": "No 100%",
        "volume_usd": 173989028.08196938
      },
      {
        "title": "Fed Decision in June?",
        "slug": "fed-decision-in-june-825",
        "leading": "No 100%",
        "volume_usd": 99007120.28002387
      },
      {
        "title": "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?",
        "slug": "us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",
        "leading": "No 100%",
        "volume_usd": 55471632.98531069
      },
      {
        "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?",
        "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",
        "leading": "No 73%",
        "volume_usd": 22351364.59105605
      },
      {
        "title": "Israel closes its airspace by...?",
        "slug": "israel-closes-its-airspace-by",
        "leading": "No 100%",
        "volume_usd": 16240404.754886989
      },
      {
        "title": "Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador",
        "slug": "fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14",
        "leading": "No 82%",
        "volume_usd": 11755294.701462975
      },
      {
        "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?",
        "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15",
        "leading": "No 100%",
        "volume_usd": 9941669.738677124
      },
      {
        "title": "World Cup: Golden Boot Winner",
        "slug": "world-cup-golden-boot-winner",
        "leading": "No 100%",
        "volume_usd": 8848555.309862996
      }
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## Market-implied picture\n\nReal-money prediction markets are currently pricing a mix of **near-certain outcomes** and a few **contested geopolitical timelines**. The largest open Polymarket markets are overwhelmingly one-sided: *World Cup Winner* is at **No 100%**, *Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028* at **No 99%**, *Presidential Election Winner 2028* at **No 99%**, *F1 Drivers’ Champion* at **No 100%**, and *Fed Decision in June?* at **No 100%**. Those quotes imply the market sees the named outcomes as effectively off the table or already priced as highly unlikely.[2]\n\n## Where the market is less one-sided\n\nThe most notable exceptions are Iran-related and shipping-disruption markets. *US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?* is priced at **Yes 96%**, *US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by…?* at **No 100%**, and *Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?* at **No 73%**. In market terms, traders are strongly leaning toward continued disruption or unresolved diplomacy, while still assigning some chance of normalization by month-end.[2]\n\n- [World Cup Winner ](https://agentflare.org/predictions/world-cup-winner.html): No 100% · vol $2.33B\n- [Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028](https://agentflare.org/predictions/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028.html): No 99% · vol $1.20B\n- [Presidential Election Winner 2028](https://agentflare.org/predictions/presidential-election-winner-2028.html): No 99% · vol $628.12M\n- [US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?](https://agentflare.org/predictions/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by.html): Yes 96% · vol $335.32M\n- [F1 Drivers' Champion](https://agentflare.org/predictions/2026-f1-drivers-champion.html): No 100% · vol $173.99M\n- [Fed Decision in June?](https://agentflare.org/predictions/fed-decision-in-june-825.html): No 100% · vol $99.01M\n- [US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?](https://agentflare.org/predictions/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by.html): No 100% · vol $55.47M\n- [Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?](https://agentflare.org/predictions/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june.html): No 73% · vol $22.35M\n- [Israel closes its airspace by...?](https://agentflare.org/predictions/israel-closes-its-airspace-by.html): No 100% · vol $16.24M\n- [Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador](https://agentflare.org/predictions/fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14.html): No 82% · vol $11.76M\n- [Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?](https://agentflare.org/predictions/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15.html): No 100% · vol $9.94M\n- [World Cup: Golden Boot Winner](https://agentflare.org/predictions/world-cup-golden-boot-winner.html): No 100% · vol $8.85M",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "name": "World Cup Winner ",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/world-cup-winner.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Presidential Election Winner 2028",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/presidential-election-winner-2028.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "F1 Drivers' Champion",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/2026-f1-drivers-champion.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fed Decision in June?",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/fed-decision-in-june-825.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Israel closes its airspace by...?",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/israel-closes-its-airspace-by.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "World Cup: Golden Boot Winner",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/world-cup-golden-boot-winner.html"
    }
  ],
  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://cdn.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
    "onboarding": "https://cdn.aisa.one/cdn/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}