AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Fri, Oct 23, 2026
Traders price the Patriots at 77.5% to beat the Bears in the October 22 game
Polymarket odds on the Patriots vs. Bears matchup imply a 77.5% chance of a Patriots win, with spread markets from Spread -1.5 to Spread -13.5 also active. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The main market asks who wins the NFL game between the Patriots and Bears, scheduled for October 22 at 8:15PM ET. It resolves to 'Patriots' if the Patriots win and to 'Bears' if the Bears win, with overtime included if played. A tie resolves 50-50, and a postponed game keeps the market open until it is completed. A game canceled entirely with no make-up game also resolves 50-50.
How traders price it now and how that moved
The moneyline Patriots vs. Bears market sits at 77.5%. Spread markets run from Spread -1.5 at 81.5% down to Spread -13.5 at 97.5%. The Spread -13.5 contract started its 24-point history at 78.5%, hit a low of 76.0%, and now sits at its high of 97.5%, up 19.0 percentage points over the window.
How concentrated the odds are
The event has 12 active markets, a total volume of $2.94M, and $2.92M traded in the last 24 hours, so most of its volume is recent. Several spread lines cluster tightly, with Spread -7.5, Spread -8.5 and Spread -9.5 all at 94.5%. Prices fall in steps as the handicap widens, with no single line far from the rest.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Spread -13.5 | 97.5% | $487.49 |
| Spread -10.5 | 96.0% | $0 |
| Spread -7.5 | 94.5% | $190.63 |
| Spread -8.5 | 94.5% | $100.00 |
| Spread -9.5 | 94.5% | $6,441.58 |
| Spread -6.5 | 91.5% | $6,834.65 |
| Spread -5.5 | 90.5% | $823.20 |
| Spread -4.5 | 89.5% | $0 |
| Spread -3.5 | 87.5% | $30,189 |
| Spread -2.5 | 83.0% | $1,146.18 |
| Spread -1.5 | 81.5% | $509.40 |
| Patriots vs. Bears | 77.5% | $901,885 |
What decides this market
- Resolution depends only on which team wins the game, so the moneyline tracks the final result directly.
- Overtime counts toward the result, while a tie or a game canceled with no make-up resolves 50-50.
- A postponed game keeps the market open until completion, so the timing of the game affects when resolution occurs.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming NFL football game between Patriots and Bears, scheduled for October 22 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Patriots" if Patriots win the game. This market will resolve to "Bears" if Bears win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does the 77.5% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability that the Patriots win, based on current trading. It reflects where buyers and sellers meet and is not a forecast or advice.
How do spread markets differ from the main market?
Each spread market asks whether a team beats the stated margin. Lines like Spread -13.5 need a bigger winning margin, so their prices sit at different levels than the main moneyline.
What happens if the game is postponed or canceled?
If postponed, the market stays open until the game is completed. If canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market resolves 50-50.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.