{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Patriots vs. Bears — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Polymarket odds on the Patriots vs. Bears matchup imply a 77.5% chance of a Patriots win, with spread markets from Spread -1.5 to Spread -13.5 also active. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts. 12 markets, $2.94M volume on Polymarket.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/nfl-ne-chi-2026-10-23.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-23",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-23T00:37:01.392Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$2.94M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$2.92M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "12"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "Spread -13.5 97.5%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-10-23"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Patriots vs. Bears",
    "slug": "nfl-ne-chi-2026-10-23",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-23T00:37:01.392Z",
    "volume_usd": 2936988.801685,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2920183.4276,
    "end_date": "2026-10-23T00:15:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Spread -13.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.025
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.975
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 487.49
      },
      {
        "question": "Spread -10.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.04
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.96
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 0
      },
      {
        "question": "Spread -7.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.055
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.945
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 190.631579
      },
      {
        "question": "Spread -8.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.055
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.945
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 100
      },
      {
        "question": "Spread -9.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.055
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.945
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 6441.577015
      },
      {
        "question": "Spread -6.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.085
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.915
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 6834.6498280000005
      },
      {
        "question": "Spread -5.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.095
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.905
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 823.1961289999999
      },
      {
        "question": "Spread -4.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.105
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.895
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 0
      },
      {
        "question": "Spread -3.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.125
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.875
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 30188.782700000003
      },
      {
        "question": "Spread -2.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.17
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.83
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1146.181082
      },
      {
        "question": "Spread -1.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.185
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.815
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 509.404469
      },
      {
        "question": "Patriots vs. Bears",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Patriots",
            "prob": 0.225
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Bears",
            "prob": 0.775
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 901885.3037680001
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.785
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.785
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.785
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.785
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.785
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.785
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.76
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.76
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.76
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.79
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.79
      },
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.79
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.79
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.89
      },
      {
        "t": "10-17",
        "v": 0.89
      },
      {
        "t": "10-17",
        "v": 0.9
      },
      {
        "t": "10-19",
        "v": 0.905
      },
      {
        "t": "10-19",
        "v": 0.905
      },
      {
        "t": "10-20",
        "v": 0.905
      },
      {
        "t": "10-20",
        "v": 0.905
      },
      {
        "t": "10-21",
        "v": 0.905
      },
      {
        "t": "10-21",
        "v": 0.905
      },
      {
        "t": "10-22",
        "v": 0.9
      },
      {
        "t": "10-23",
        "v": 0.975
      }
    ],
    "analysis": [
      {
        "h": "What the market asks and how it resolves",
        "body": "The main market asks who wins the NFL game between the Patriots and Bears, scheduled for October 22 at 8:15PM ET. It resolves to 'Patriots' if the Patriots win and to 'Bears' if the Bears win, with overtime included if played. A tie resolves 50-50, and a postponed game keeps the market open until it is completed. A game canceled entirely with no make-up game also resolves 50-50."
      },
      {
        "h": "How traders price it now and how that moved",
        "body": "The moneyline Patriots vs. Bears market sits at 77.5%. Spread markets run from Spread -1.5 at 81.5% down to Spread -13.5 at 97.5%. The Spread -13.5 contract started its 24-point history at 78.5%, hit a low of 76.0%, and now sits at its high of 97.5%, up 19.0 percentage points over the window."
      },
      {
        "h": "How concentrated the odds are",
        "body": "The event has 12 active markets, a total volume of $2.94M, and $2.92M traded in the last 24 hours, so most of its volume is recent. Several spread lines cluster tightly, with Spread -7.5, Spread -8.5 and Spread -9.5 all at 94.5%. Prices fall in steps as the handicap widens, with no single line far from the rest."
      }
    ],
    "drivers": [
      "Resolution depends only on which team wins the game, so the moneyline tracks the final result directly.",
      "Overtime counts toward the result, while a tie or a game canceled with no make-up resolves 50-50.",
      "A postponed game keeps the market open until completion, so the timing of the game affects when resolution occurs."
    ],
    "faq": [
      {
        "q": "What does the 77.5% price mean?",
        "a": "It is the market-implied probability that the Patriots win, based on current trading. It reflects where buyers and sellers meet and is not a forecast or advice."
      },
      {
        "q": "How do spread markets differ from the main market?",
        "a": "Each spread market asks whether a team beats the stated margin. Lines like Spread -13.5 need a bigger winning margin, so their prices sit at different levels than the main moneyline."
      },
      {
        "h": "What happens if the game is postponed or canceled?",
        "q": "What happens if the game is postponed or canceled?",
        "a": "If postponed, the market stays open until the game is completed. If canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market resolves 50-50."
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Sports",
      "NFL (All)",
      "Games"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Polymarket odds on the Patriots vs. Bears matchup imply a 77.5% chance of a Patriots win, with spread markets from Spread -1.5 to Spread -13.5 also active. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.\n\n## What the market asks and how it resolves\n\nThe main market asks who wins the NFL game between the Patriots and Bears, scheduled for October 22 at 8:15PM ET. It resolves to 'Patriots' if the Patriots win and to 'Bears' if the Bears win, with overtime included if played. A tie resolves 50-50, and a postponed game keeps the market open until it is completed. A game canceled entirely with no make-up game also resolves 50-50.\n\n## How traders price it now and how that moved\n\nThe moneyline Patriots vs. Bears market sits at 77.5%. Spread markets run from Spread -1.5 at 81.5% down to Spread -13.5 at 97.5%. The Spread -13.5 contract started its 24-point history at 78.5%, hit a low of 76.0%, and now sits at its high of 97.5%, up 19.0 percentage points over the window.\n\n## How concentrated the odds are\n\nThe event has 12 active markets, a total volume of $2.94M, and $2.92M traded in the last 24 hours, so most of its volume is recent. Several spread lines cluster tightly, with Spread -7.5, Spread -8.5 and Spread -9.5 all at 94.5%. Prices fall in steps as the handicap widens, with no single line far from the rest.\n\n## Current odds\n\n- Spread -13.5: 97.5% (vol $487.49)\n- Spread -10.5: 96.0% (vol $0)\n- Spread -7.5: 94.5% (vol $190.63)\n- Spread -8.5: 94.5% (vol $100.00)\n- Spread -9.5: 94.5% (vol $6,441.58)\n- Spread -6.5: 91.5% (vol $6,834.65)\n- Spread -5.5: 90.5% (vol $823.20)\n- Spread -4.5: 89.5% (vol $0)\n- Spread -3.5: 87.5% (vol $30,189)\n- Spread -2.5: 83.0% (vol $1,146.18)\n- Spread -1.5: 81.5% (vol $509.40)\n- Patriots vs. Bears: 77.5% (vol $901,885)\n\n## What decides this market\n\n- Resolution depends only on which team wins the game, so the moneyline tracks the final result directly.\n- Overtime counts toward the result, while a tie or a game canceled with no make-up resolves 50-50.\n- A postponed game keeps the market open until completion, so the timing of the game affects when resolution occurs.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**What does the 77.5% price mean?**\nIt is the market-implied probability that the Patriots win, based on current trading. It reflects where buyers and sellers meet and is not a forecast or advice.\n\n**How do spread markets differ from the main market?**\nEach spread market asks whether a team beats the stated margin. Lines like Spread -13.5 need a bigger winning margin, so their prices sit at different levels than the main moneyline.\n\n**What happens if the game is postponed or canceled?**\nIf postponed, the market stays open until the game is completed. If canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market resolves 50-50.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Patriots vs. Bears on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-ne-chi-2026-10-23"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}