AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Fri, Oct 16, 2026
Traders price Marine Le Pen as favourite at 47.5% for next French presidential election
Traders price Marine Le Pen at 47.5% to win the next French presidential election, ahead of Édouard Philippe at 19.5%. Her price has risen from 36.0% over the recent window.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The market asks who will win the next French presidential election. A candidate must secure over 50% in the first round to win outright; otherwise the top two advance to a runoff, which the market also covers. The election is currently expected around April 2027, and the event ends 2027-04-19. Resolution follows the consensus of credible reporting, with official Ministry of the Interior results as the reference if there is ambiguity. If results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
How traders price it now and how that moved
Marine Le Pen is priced at 47.5%, ahead of Édouard Philippe at 19.5% and David Lisnard at 11.8%. Her price has moved from 36.0% to 47.5% over the last 59 half-day points, a change of +11.5 percentage points, with the current level also marking the high. Total volume is $151.66M, and $805,486 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 active markets. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.
How concentrated the odds are
Odds are concentrated at the top of the field. Beyond Le Pen, Philippe and Lisnard, Raphaël Glucksmann sits at 2.3% and François Hollande at 1.8%, while most remaining names trade at 1.1% or below. Prices of this kind reflect what traders are paying for each outcome at this moment, and they can shift as news and trading volume change.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 47.5% | $3.92M |
| Édouard Philippe | 19.5% | $2.25M |
| David Lisnard | 11.8% | $4.88M |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 2.3% | $2.45M |
| François Hollande | 1.8% | $2.50M |
| Gabriel Attal | 1.6% | $3.03M |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1.1% | $2.95M |
| Jordan Bardella | 0.5% | $2.76M |
| Éric Zemmour | 0.5% | $2.92M |
| François Ruffin | 0.1% | $4.79M |
| Xavier Bertrand | 0.1% | $6.16M |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 0.1% | $3.70M |
What decides this market
- The winner of the election decides the market, judged by consensus credible reporting or official Ministry of the Interior results.
- A candidate must exceed 50% in the first round to win outright; otherwise the top two advance to a runoff covered by the market.
- If results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Does the market still resolve if the election is held early?
Yes. The resolution text says the market covers the next election regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
What does a 47.5% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability of Yes for Marine Le Pen, reflecting what traders are paying at this moment. It is not a forecast or advice.
What happens if results are not known by the deadline?
The market resolves to 'Other' if results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.