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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Live Odds & Analysis

Live Polymarket odds for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028": George Clooney No 99%. 12 markets, $1.20B volume. Real-money prediction-market data.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Live Odds & Analysis
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What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it

This Polymarket contract asks whether each named person wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination; otherwise it resolves to No. The stated resolution source is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, and a later replacement of the nominee before Election Day does not change the outcome.[8]

Current pricing is overwhelmingly negative for the listed names: George Clooney, Oprah Winfrey, Gina Raimondo, Raphael Warnock, Barack Obama, Gretchen Whitmer, Cory Booker, and Stephen A. Smith are each at 99% No. The market is large and active, with $1.20B in total volume, 12 active markets, and an end date of 2028-11-07.[1][4]

What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them

These odds imply traders see a very low market-implied chance that any of the listed figures becomes the Democratic nominee, relative to the broader field. In Polymarket’s wider 2028 nomination set, trader attention is concentrated elsewhere, with Gavin Newsom cited as a leading consensus candidate around the low-to-high 20s in implied probability.[1][4]

The $1.20B volume suggests deep participation and strong information flow, so prices should move mainly on events that change nomination expectations: major campaign announcements, polling shifts, endorsements, debate performance, health or eligibility developments, and changes in the party’s internal coalition. Because the contract resolves on formal nomination and acceptance, not on who is merely favored or replaced informally, traders would focus on official party actions and credible signals about delegate support.[8]

Current market odds

MarketLeading outcomeVolume
George ClooneyNo 99%$41.35M
Oprah WinfreyNo 99%$53.12M
Gina RaimondoNo 99%$34.68M
Raphael WarnockNo 99%$30.42M
Barack ObamaNo 99%$33.00M
Gretchen WhitmerNo 99%$10.35M
Cory BookerNo 99%$24.57M
Stephen A. SmithNo 99%$20.81M
James TalaricoNo 98%$9.74M
Andy BeshearNo 97%$12.45M
Pete ButtigiegNo 96%$11.01M
Jon OssoffNo 92%$11.68M

Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-15. View on Polymarket ↗

Sources & citations

  1. https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
  2. https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028
  3. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28
  4. https://polymarket.com/predictions/democratic-presidential-nomination
  5. Polymarket via AISA API