World Cup Winner — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "World Cup Winner ": New Zealand No 100%. 12 markets, $2.33B volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
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What the market is asking and how traders are currently pricing it
This Polymarket event asks which national team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup; it resolves to “No” immediately for any team that becomes mathematically unable to win under FIFA rules, and it also has a fallback if the tournament is not completed by the market’s cutoff date.[1] The market shows $2.33B in total volume, spans 12 active markets, and ends on 2026-07-20.[1]
Current pricing is extremely one-sided on the listed teams: New Zealand No 100%, Haiti No 100%, Jordan No 100%, Curaçao No 100%, South Korea No 100%, Switzerland No 99%, Germany No 94%, and Brazil No 93%.[1]
What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them
These prices imply that traders assign essentially zero to very low market-implied chances for the listed teams to win, with the strongest remaining skepticism still centered on Brazil and Germany.[1] The very large volume suggests deep participation and that the market has already absorbed substantial information about team strength, qualification status, and bracket path, though the listed prices still reflect binary “No” outcomes rather than a full probability distribution.[1]
What would move these odds most is straightforward: match results, elimination status, and any event that changes whether a team can still win under FIFA rules.[1] For the broader market, prices would also react to major tournament developments, while the contract-level resolution rules mean outright elimination can force an immediate No.
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | No 100% | $46.20M |
| Haiti | No 100% | $32.65M |
| Jordan | No 100% | $32.33M |
| Curaçao | No 100% | $43.61M |
| South Korea | No 100% | $66.10M |
| Switzerland | No 99% | $48.61M |
| Germany | No 94% | $47.20M |
| Brazil | No 93% | $40.67M |
| Argentina | No 92% | $42.08M |
| England | No 90% | $38.54M |
| France | No 84% | $51.53M |
| Spain | No 84% | $45.16M |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-15. View on Polymarket ↗
Sources & citations
- https://x.com/search?f=live&vertical=default&q=uic.io%2Ftr%2Fcalendar%2F2305%2F03%2F28%2F&src=typd&lang=ja
- https://explorer.struct.to/markets/khamenei-of-tweets-may-5-may-12-2026-55-59
- https://explorer.struct.to/markets/white-house-of-tweets-may-29-june-5-2026-100-119
- https://explorer.struct.to/markets/donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-april-21-april-28-60-79
- Polymarket via AISA API