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  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028\": George Clooney No 99%. 12 markets, $1.20B volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
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  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-15",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-15T01:19:16.018Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$1.20B"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$1.98M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "12"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "No 99%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2028-11-07"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028",
    "slug": "democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",
    "volume_usd": 1196819676.0863633,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1978598.149251,
    "end_date": "2028-11-07T00:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "George Clooney",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9935
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          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0065
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        ],
        "volume_usd": 41347279.63828553
      },
      {
        "question": "Oprah Winfrey",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9925
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0075
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 53120766.830446005
      },
      {
        "question": "Gina Raimondo",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9925
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0075
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 34676659.98997886
      },
      {
        "question": "Raphael Warnock",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9925
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0075
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 30420884.243229244
      },
      {
        "question": "Barack Obama",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9925
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0075
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 32999119.719095636
      },
      {
        "question": "Gretchen Whitmer",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9915
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0085
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 10352572.28574607
      },
      {
        "question": "Cory Booker",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9905
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0095
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 24574415.80947492
      },
      {
        "question": "Stephen A. Smith",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9895
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0105
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 20805129.323200203
      },
      {
        "question": "James Talarico",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9805
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0195
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 9738958.289840028
      },
      {
        "question": "Andy Beshear",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9745
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0255
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 12445794.179329906
      },
      {
        "question": "Pete Buttigieg",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9575
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0425
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 11010444.297483621
      },
      {
        "question": "Jon Ossoff",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9215
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          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0785
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 11682660.944738893
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "World Elections",
      "Global Elections",
      "Elections",
      "Politics",
      "US Election",
      "Earn 4%",
      "Primaries",
      "United States"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it\n\nThis Polymarket contract asks whether each named person wins and accepts the **2028 Democratic presidential nomination**; otherwise it resolves to **No**. The stated resolution source is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, and a later replacement of the nominee before Election Day does not change the outcome.[8]\n\nCurrent pricing is overwhelmingly negative for the listed names: **George Clooney, Oprah Winfrey, Gina Raimondo, Raphael Warnock, Barack Obama, Gretchen Whitmer, Cory Booker, and Stephen A. Smith** are each at **99% No**. The market is large and active, with **$1.20B** in total volume, **12 active markets**, and an end date of **2028-11-07**.[1][4]\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\nThese odds imply traders see a **very low market-implied chance** that any of the listed figures becomes the Democratic nominee, relative to the broader field. In Polymarket’s wider 2028 nomination set, trader attention is concentrated elsewhere, with Gavin Newsom cited as a leading consensus candidate around the low-to-high 20s in implied probability.[1][4]\n\nThe **$1.20B** volume suggests deep participation and strong information flow, so prices should move mainly on events that change nomination expectations: major campaign announcements, polling shifts, endorsements, debate performance, health or eligibility developments, and changes in the party’s internal coalition. Because the contract resolves on formal nomination and acceptance, not on who is merely favored or replaced informally, traders would focus on official party actions and credible signals about delegate support.[8]\n\n- George Clooney: No 99% (vol $41.35M)\n- Oprah Winfrey: No 99% (vol $53.12M)\n- Gina Raimondo: No 99% (vol $34.68M)\n- Raphael Warnock: No 99% (vol $30.42M)\n- Barack Obama: No 99% (vol $33.00M)\n- Gretchen Whitmer: No 99% (vol $10.35M)\n- Cory Booker: No 99% (vol $24.57M)\n- Stephen A. Smith: No 99% (vol $20.81M)\n- James Talarico: No 98% (vol $9.74M)\n- Andy Beshear: No 97% (vol $12.45M)\n- Pete Buttigieg: No 96% (vol $11.01M)\n- Jon Ossoff: No 92% (vol $11.68M)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/predictions/democratic-presidential-nomination"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
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    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://cdn.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
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}