AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Fri, Oct 16, 2026
Traders price 95.5% odds the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through October 18
Polymarket odds fall as the deadline extends, from 95.5% for October 18 to 45.5% for December 31. Each market is a cumulative question on whether a qualifying strike occurs before its cutoff.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The market asks whether a state of ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through each listed date, measured at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves No if either side takes a qualifying military action against the other, meaning an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by Israel or Iran that directly impacts the other country. Intercepted munitions, surface-to-air strikes, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, and artillery do not count. Six markets cover dates from October 18 through December 31, and the event ends 2026-12-31.
How traders price it now and how it moved
Traders price October 18 at 95.5%, October 21 at 94.5%, October 31 at 82.5%, November 15 at 70.5%, November 30 at 59.5%, and December 31 at 45.5%. The October 18 market traded between a low of 94.0% and a high of 95.5% over the last four half-day points, with a change of +1.5 percentage points. Implied probability falls as the deadline lengthens, consistent with more time for a qualifying strike to occur. Total volume is $35.39M, with $652,714 traded in the last 24 hours.
How concentrated the odds are
The spread across the six dates is wide, running from 95.5% for October 18 down to 45.5% for December 31. The two nearest contracts, October 18 and October 21, sit close together at high levels, while October 31 is at 82.5%. Prices decline more quickly through the November markets, with November 15 at 70.5% and November 30 at 59.5%. These are separate cumulative questions, so the curve reflects market-implied odds of no qualifying strike over each window, not a forecast.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| October 18 | 95.5% | $210,861 |
| October 21 | 94.5% | $179,518 |
| October 31 | 82.5% | $2.17M |
| November 15 | 70.5% | $181,927 |
| November 30 | 59.5% | $565,754 |
| December 31 | 45.5% | $1.06M |
What decides this market
- Any qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting the other country ends the ceasefire and resolves the market No.
- Only strikes initiated by Israel or Iran count; intercepted munitions, small-arms fire, cyber operations, and artillery do not.
- The cutoff is 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on each listed date, so timing relative to that deadline matters.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-sur…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does Yes mean in this market?
Yes means a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The prices shown are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts or advice.
Do intercepted missiles break the ceasefire?
No. Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact are excluded from the definition of a qualifying military action in the resolution text.
Why are later dates priced lower?
Longer windows allow more time for a qualifying strike to occur. December 31 at 45.5% covers a longer exposure period than October 18 at 95.5%.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.