{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Polymarket odds fall as the deadline extends, from 95.5% for October 18 to 45.5% for December 31. Each market is a cumulative question on whether a qualifying strike occurs before its cutoff. 6 markets, $35.39M volume on Polymarket.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-16",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$35.39M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$652,714"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "6"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "October 18 95.5%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-12-31"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?",
    "slug": "israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
    "volume_usd": 35393803.206980005,
    "volume_24h_usd": 652713.7032799999,
    "end_date": "2026-12-31T20:29:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "October 18",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.955
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.045
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 210860.591366
      },
      {
        "question": "October 21",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.945
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.055
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 179517.614407
      },
      {
        "question": "October 31",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.825
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.175
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2170735.177787999
      },
      {
        "question": "November 15",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.705
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.295
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 181926.707648
      },
      {
        "question": "November 30",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.595
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.405
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 565753.7842659999
      },
      {
        "question": "December 31",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.455
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.545
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1062818.188677
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.94
      },
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.95
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.955
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.955
      }
    ],
    "analysis": [
      {
        "h": "What the market asks and how it resolves",
        "body": "The market asks whether a state of ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through each listed date, measured at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves No if either side takes a qualifying military action against the other, meaning an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by Israel or Iran that directly impacts the other country. Intercepted munitions, surface-to-air strikes, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, and artillery do not count. Six markets cover dates from October 18 through December 31, and the event ends 2026-12-31."
      },
      {
        "h": "How traders price it now and how it moved",
        "body": "Traders price October 18 at 95.5%, October 21 at 94.5%, October 31 at 82.5%, November 15 at 70.5%, November 30 at 59.5%, and December 31 at 45.5%. The October 18 market traded between a low of 94.0% and a high of 95.5% over the last four half-day points, with a change of +1.5 percentage points. Implied probability falls as the deadline lengthens, consistent with more time for a qualifying strike to occur. Total volume is $35.39M, with $652,714 traded in the last 24 hours."
      },
      {
        "h": "How concentrated the odds are",
        "body": "The spread across the six dates is wide, running from 95.5% for October 18 down to 45.5% for December 31. The two nearest contracts, October 18 and October 21, sit close together at high levels, while October 31 is at 82.5%. Prices decline more quickly through the November markets, with November 15 at 70.5% and November 30 at 59.5%. These are separate cumulative questions, so the curve reflects market-implied odds of no qualifying strike over each window, not a forecast."
      }
    ],
    "drivers": [
      "Any qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting the other country ends the ceasefire and resolves the market No.",
      "Only strikes initiated by Israel or Iran count; intercepted munitions, small-arms fire, cyber operations, and artillery do not.",
      "The cutoff is 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on each listed date, so timing relative to that deadline matters."
    ],
    "faq": [
      {
        "q": "What does Yes mean in this market?",
        "a": "Yes means a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The prices shown are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts or advice."
      },
      {
        "q": "Do intercepted missiles break the ceasefire?",
        "a": "No. Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact are excluded from the definition of a qualifying military action in the resolution text."
      },
      {
        "q": "Why are later dates priced lower?",
        "a": "Longer windows allow more time for a qualifying strike to occur. December 31 at 45.5% covers a longer exposure period than October 18 at 95.5%."
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Iran",
      "Israel",
      "Geopolitics",
      "Israel x Iran",
      "Israel Election"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Polymarket odds fall as the deadline extends, from 95.5% for October 18 to 45.5% for December 31. Each market is a cumulative question on whether a qualifying strike occurs before its cutoff.\n\n## What the market asks and how it resolves\n\nThe market asks whether a state of ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through each listed date, measured at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves No if either side takes a qualifying military action against the other, meaning an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by Israel or Iran that directly impacts the other country. Intercepted munitions, surface-to-air strikes, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, and artillery do not count. Six markets cover dates from October 18 through December 31, and the event ends 2026-12-31.\n\n## How traders price it now and how it moved\n\nTraders price October 18 at 95.5%, October 21 at 94.5%, October 31 at 82.5%, November 15 at 70.5%, November 30 at 59.5%, and December 31 at 45.5%. The October 18 market traded between a low of 94.0% and a high of 95.5% over the last four half-day points, with a change of +1.5 percentage points. Implied probability falls as the deadline lengthens, consistent with more time for a qualifying strike to occur. Total volume is $35.39M, with $652,714 traded in the last 24 hours.\n\n## How concentrated the odds are\n\nThe spread across the six dates is wide, running from 95.5% for October 18 down to 45.5% for December 31. The two nearest contracts, October 18 and October 21, sit close together at high levels, while October 31 is at 82.5%. Prices decline more quickly through the November markets, with November 15 at 70.5% and November 30 at 59.5%. These are separate cumulative questions, so the curve reflects market-implied odds of no qualifying strike over each window, not a forecast.\n\n## Current odds\n\n- October 18: 95.5% (vol $210,861)\n- October 21: 94.5% (vol $179,518)\n- October 31: 82.5% (vol $2.17M)\n- November 15: 70.5% (vol $181,927)\n- November 30: 59.5% (vol $565,754)\n- December 31: 45.5% (vol $1.06M)\n\n## What decides this market\n\n- Any qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting the other country ends the ceasefire and resolves the market No.\n- Only strikes initiated by Israel or Iran count; intercepted munitions, small-arms fire, cyber operations, and artillery do not.\n- The cutoff is 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on each listed date, so timing relative to that deadline matters.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**What does Yes mean in this market?**\nYes means a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The prices shown are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts or advice.\n\n**Do intercepted missiles break the ceasefire?**\nNo. Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact are excluded from the definition of a qualifying military action in the resolution text.\n\n**Why are later dates priced lower?**\nLonger windows allow more time for a qualifying strike to occur. December 31 at 45.5% covers a longer exposure period than October 18 at 95.5%.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}