{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Next French Presidential Election — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Traders price Marine Le Pen at 47.5% to win the next French presidential election, ahead of Édouard Philippe at 19.5%. Her price has risen from 36.0% over the recent window. 12 markets, $151.66M volume on Polymarket.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/next-french-presidential-election.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-16",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$151.66M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$805,486"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "12"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "Marine Le Pen 47.5%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2027-04-19"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Next French Presidential Election",
    "slug": "next-french-presidential-election",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
    "volume_usd": 151655170.257101,
    "volume_24h_usd": 805485.529028,
    "end_date": "2027-04-19T03:59:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Marine Le Pen",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.4755
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.5245
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 3921555.456734003
      },
      {
        "question": "Édouard Philippe",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.195
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.805
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2251298.888357
      },
      {
        "question": "David Lisnard",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.118
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.882
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 4878693.241861998
      },
      {
        "question": "Raphaël Glucksmann",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0225
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9775
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2447914.9078969997
      },
      {
        "question": "François Hollande",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.018
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.982
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2499525.495364
      },
      {
        "question": "Gabriel Attal",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0155
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9845
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 3030495.5756219993
      },
      {
        "question": "Bruno Retailleau",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0105
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9895
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2952798.5953369993
      },
      {
        "question": "Jordan Bardella",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0055
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9945
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2760213.9230229994
      },
      {
        "question": "Éric Zemmour",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2916486.831180999
      },
      {
        "question": "François Ruffin",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0015
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9985
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 4792047.891626999
      },
      {
        "question": "Xavier Bertrand",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.001
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.999
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 6158811.599839001
      },
      {
        "question": "Laurent Wauquiez",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 3704317.322265002
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "09-16",
        "v": 0.3605
      },
      {
        "t": "09-17",
        "v": 0.3605
      },
      {
        "t": "09-17",
        "v": 0.3605
      },
      {
        "t": "09-18",
        "v": 0.3605
      },
      {
        "t": "09-18",
        "v": 0.3665
      },
      {
        "t": "09-19",
        "v": 0.3805
      },
      {
        "t": "09-19",
        "v": 0.3805
      },
      {
        "t": "09-20",
        "v": 0.3805
      },
      {
        "t": "09-20",
        "v": 0.3705
      },
      {
        "t": "09-21",
        "v": 0.3705
      },
      {
        "t": "09-21",
        "v": 0.3735
      },
      {
        "t": "09-22",
        "v": 0.3805
      },
      {
        "t": "09-22",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-23",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-23",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-24",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-24",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-25",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-25",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-26",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-26",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-27",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-27",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-28",
        "v": 0.3835
      },
      {
        "t": "09-28",
        "v": 0.3945
      },
      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.3945
      },
      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.3945
      },
      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.4275
      },
      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.4275
      },
      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.4315
      },
      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.4305
      },
      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.433
      },
      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.4405
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.4565
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.4515
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.4505
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.457
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.4485
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.4485
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.4255
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.4255
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.4325
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.4325
      },
      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.4325
      },
      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.4125
      },
      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.4105
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.4085
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.4065
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.394
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.4025
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.3995
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.3995
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.4185
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.4215
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.4315
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.4465
      },
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.4455
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.4735
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.4755
      }
    ],
    "analysis": [
      {
        "h": "What the market asks and how it resolves",
        "body": "The market asks who will win the next French presidential election. A candidate must secure over 50% in the first round to win outright; otherwise the top two advance to a runoff, which the market also covers. The election is currently expected around April 2027, and the event ends 2027-04-19. Resolution follows the consensus of credible reporting, with official Ministry of the Interior results as the reference if there is ambiguity. If results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'."
      },
      {
        "h": "How traders price it now and how that moved",
        "body": "Marine Le Pen is priced at 47.5%, ahead of Édouard Philippe at 19.5% and David Lisnard at 11.8%. Her price has moved from 36.0% to 47.5% over the last 59 half-day points, a change of +11.5 percentage points, with the current level also marking the high. Total volume is $151.66M, and $805,486 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 active markets. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts."
      },
      {
        "h": "How concentrated the odds are",
        "body": "Odds are concentrated at the top of the field. Beyond Le Pen, Philippe and Lisnard, Raphaël Glucksmann sits at 2.3% and François Hollande at 1.8%, while most remaining names trade at 1.1% or below. Prices of this kind reflect what traders are paying for each outcome at this moment, and they can shift as news and trading volume change."
      }
    ],
    "drivers": [
      "The winner of the election decides the market, judged by consensus credible reporting or official Ministry of the Interior results.",
      "A candidate must exceed 50% in the first round to win outright; otherwise the top two advance to a runoff covered by the market.",
      "If results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'."
    ],
    "faq": [
      {
        "q": "Does the market still resolve if the election is held early?",
        "a": "Yes. The resolution text says the market covers the next election regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier."
      },
      {
        "q": "What does a 47.5% price mean?",
        "a": "It is the market-implied probability of Yes for Marine Le Pen, reflecting what traders are paying at this moment. It is not a forecast or advice."
      },
      {
        "q": "What happens if results are not known by the deadline?",
        "a": "The market resolves to 'Other' if results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET."
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "French Election",
      "Main Election",
      "France",
      "World",
      "Politics",
      "Global Elections",
      "Elections",
      "French Elections"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Traders price Marine Le Pen at 47.5% to win the next French presidential election, ahead of Édouard Philippe at 19.5%. Her price has risen from 36.0% over the recent window.\n\n## What the market asks and how it resolves\n\nThe market asks who will win the next French presidential election. A candidate must secure over 50% in the first round to win outright; otherwise the top two advance to a runoff, which the market also covers. The election is currently expected around April 2027, and the event ends 2027-04-19. Resolution follows the consensus of credible reporting, with official Ministry of the Interior results as the reference if there is ambiguity. If results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.\n\n## How traders price it now and how that moved\n\nMarine Le Pen is priced at 47.5%, ahead of Édouard Philippe at 19.5% and David Lisnard at 11.8%. Her price has moved from 36.0% to 47.5% over the last 59 half-day points, a change of +11.5 percentage points, with the current level also marking the high. Total volume is $151.66M, and $805,486 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 active markets. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.\n\n## How concentrated the odds are\n\nOdds are concentrated at the top of the field. Beyond Le Pen, Philippe and Lisnard, Raphaël Glucksmann sits at 2.3% and François Hollande at 1.8%, while most remaining names trade at 1.1% or below. Prices of this kind reflect what traders are paying for each outcome at this moment, and they can shift as news and trading volume change.\n\n## Current odds\n\n- Marine Le Pen: 47.5% (vol $3.92M)\n- Édouard Philippe: 19.5% (vol $2.25M)\n- David Lisnard: 11.8% (vol $4.88M)\n- Raphaël Glucksmann: 2.3% (vol $2.45M)\n- François Hollande: 1.8% (vol $2.50M)\n- Gabriel Attal: 1.6% (vol $3.03M)\n- Bruno Retailleau: 1.1% (vol $2.95M)\n- Jordan Bardella: 0.5% (vol $2.76M)\n- Éric Zemmour: 0.5% (vol $2.92M)\n- François Ruffin: 0.1% (vol $4.79M)\n- Xavier Bertrand: 0.1% (vol $6.16M)\n- Laurent Wauquiez: 0.1% (vol $3.70M)\n\n## What decides this market\n\n- The winner of the election decides the market, judged by consensus credible reporting or official Ministry of the Interior results.\n- A candidate must exceed 50% in the first round to win outright; otherwise the top two advance to a runoff covered by the market.\n- If results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**Does the market still resolve if the election is held early?**\nYes. The resolution text says the market covers the next election regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.\n\n**What does a 47.5% price mean?**\nIt is the market-implied probability of Yes for Marine Le Pen, reflecting what traders are paying at this moment. It is not a forecast or advice.\n\n**What happens if results are not known by the deadline?**\nThe market resolves to 'Other' if results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Next French Presidential Election on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
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  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}