AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Fri, Oct 16, 2026
Traders price Flávio Bolsonaro ahead at 79.0% in Brazil's presidential race
Polymarket odds for the Brazil Presidential Election put Flávio Bolsonaro at 79.0% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 20.5%. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The market asks which listed candidate wins Brazil's presidential election, which the resolution text schedules for October 4, 2026. It includes any second round. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) as the reference if reporting is ambiguous. If the result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. The event has two active markets, total volume of $184.15M, and $2.29M traded in the last 24 hours.
How traders price it now and how it moved
Flávio Bolsonaro's market-implied probability of winning stands at 79.0%, against 20.5% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Over the last 61 half-day points, his price started at 54.3% and now sits at 79.0%, a change of +24.7 percentage points. The series low was 54.2% and the high reached 88.9%, so the current price is below that peak. These figures describe where traders are positioned as new information arrives, not how the vote will go.
How concentrated the odds are
The odds sit mainly with two candidates: Flávio Bolsonaro at 79.0% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 20.5%. That split points to a clear favorite in trader pricing, though the gap has narrowed from the 88.9% high seen during the period. Trading interest is substantial, with $184.15M in total volume and $2.29M in the last 24 hours. Concentrated odds reflect current positioning only.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 79.0% | $20.90M |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 20.5% | $24.80M |
What decides this market
- Resolution uses the listed candidate who wins, and any second round is included.
- A consensus of credible reporting decides, with TSE official results as the fallback for ambiguity.
- If no result is known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Does a second round count toward this market?
Yes. The resolution text states the market includes any potential second round, so the winner of the final decisive round determines the outcome for the listed candidate.
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other' under the resolution text, regardless of the earlier candidate prices.
Do these odds predict who will win?
No. The odds are market-implied probabilities of Yes, reflecting how traders are positioned at a given time. They are not forecasts or advice about the election result.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.