AgentFlareBitcoin above ___ on October 10? — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "Bitcoin above ___ on October 10?": 74,000 Yes 100%. 11 markets, $796,594.75 volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
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What the market is asking and current pricing
The event asks whether Binance’s BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at noon ET on October 10, 2026 will have a final Close price above each listed threshold. It has 11 active markets and ends October 10, 2026. The quoted prices imply 100% market-implied probability of Yes at \$74,000, \$76,000, and \$78,000, while implying 100% No at \$86,000, \$88,000, \$90,000, and \$92,000/\$94,000.[1]
What the odds and volume imply
The displayed pricing places the market-implied boundary between \$78,000 and \$86,000: traders price the noon close as above the lower thresholds but not above the higher ones. These are market prices, not independent forecasts or guarantees; 100% quotes can still change before resolution. Total volume of \$796,594.75 indicates substantial trading activity, though volume alone does not establish forecast accuracy. The odds would move if BTC prices, volatility, liquidity, or trading activity changed, or if participants revised expectations about the specified Binance candle. Resolution depends strictly on Binance’s final one-minute Close, not an average or another exchange’s price.
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| 74,000 | Yes 100% | $85,360.56 |
| 76,000 | Yes 100% | $56,599.59 |
| 78,000 | Yes 100% | $120,020.82 |
| 86,000 | No 100% | $129,654.64 |
| 88,000 | No 100% | $80,703.21 |
| 90,000 | No 100% | $30,357.33 |
| 92,000 | No 100% | $14,288.78 |
| 94,000 | No 100% | $17,323.41 |
| 80,000 | Yes 100% | $81,143.87 |
| 84,000 | No 99% | $118,009.5 |
| 82,000 | Yes 97% | $63,133.04 |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-10-10. View on Polymarket ↗