Elon Musk # tweets October 8 - October 10, 2026? — Live Odds & Analysis

What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it

The event asks how many times Elon Musk’s @elonmusk account posts on X from October 8 at 12:00 PM ET through October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count; replies do not, subject to the market’s stated counting rule.^[1] The market has 8 active ranges and ends October 10, with total volume of $801,294.85. Current market-implied probabilities strongly favor 90–114 posts (Yes 93%) and assign 115–139 a 6% implied Yes probability; every other listed range is priced at 0%–1% Yes, including 65–89 and all ranges from 140 upward.

What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them

The pricing indicates concentrated trader expectations around 90–114 posts rather than a broad distribution. The substantial volume suggests meaningful participation, but it does not guarantee that the quoted odds are accurate or that the leading range will resolve true. Prices would move mainly with additional qualifying posts during the remaining window, especially if the running total approaches a range boundary, as well as with any clarification or dispute over whether specific posts qualify. The market’s final resolution depends on the counted total at the stated cutoff, not on replies that are excluded.

Current market odds

Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-10-10. View on Polymarket ↗