AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Fri, Oct 16, 2026
Traders price 98.2% odds the US-Iran ceasefire holds through October 16
Polymarket traders give the ceasefire a 98.2% chance of holding through October 16, easing to 78.5% by October 31 and 31.0% by December 31. Each date market resolves No only if the US carries out a qualifying strike on Iran.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The event asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through a set of dates, from October 16 to December 31. Each date is its own market. It resolves No if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by that date at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. A qualifying action is an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by the US that directly impacts Iran. Otherwise it resolves Yes. Threats, announced but unexecuted force, intercepted munitions, cyber operations, and artillery fire do not count.
How traders price it now and how it moved
The October 16 market sits at 98.2%, up 0.7 percentage points over the last three half-day points, with a range from 97.5% to 98.2%. Pricing declines with time: 95.2% for October 17, 92.0% for October 18, 87.5% for October 22, 84.5% for October 24, and 81.5% for October 28. Odds fall to 64.0% for November 8, 53.5% for November 15, 44.5% for November 22, and 39.5% for November 30, reaching 31.0% at December 31. Total volume stands at $13.60M, with $646,641 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 active markets.
How concentrated the odds are
Odds sit high for near-term dates and spread out as the horizon lengthens. Markets through October 31 all trade at 78.5% or above, while the November and December markets range from 31.0% to 64.0%. The steepest visible step runs from October 31 at 78.5% to November 8 at 64.0%, suggesting that the market's implied risk of a qualifying strike rises most sharply in early November. These are market-implied probabilities of Yes, not forecasts.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| October 16 | 98.2% | $96,269 |
| October 17 | 95.2% | $172,192 |
| October 18 | 92.0% | $22,597 |
| October 22 | 87.5% | $36,097 |
| October 24 | 84.5% | $8,356.36 |
| October 28 | 81.5% | $6,769.41 |
| October 31 | 78.5% | $3.08M |
| November 8 | 64.0% | $1,791.10 |
| November 15 | 53.5% | $235,100 |
| November 22 | 44.5% | $172.59 |
| November 30 | 39.5% | $594,820 |
| December 31 | 31.0% | $488,369 |
What decides this market
- A qualifying US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran resolves the relevant date market to No.
- Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact, surface-to-air strikes, and artillery or mortar fire do not count toward a No resolution.
- Threats, authorizations, or announced force that has not been executed do not trigger No; only executed strikes before the cutoff do.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Does a threat of strikes resolve a market to No?
No. The resolution text excludes any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Only an executed qualifying strike directly impacting Iran by the specified date would resolve a market to No.
What is the time cutoff for each market?
Each date market is judged at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on that specific date. The October 16 market therefore covers only qualifying actions occurring up to that cutoff, not later events.
What do the percentages represent?
They are market-implied probabilities of Yes based on current Polymarket prices. They reflect what traders are paying, not forecasts or advice about how events will unfold.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.