{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Polymarket traders give the ceasefire a 98.2% chance of holding through October 16, easing to 78.5% by October 31 and 31.0% by December 31. Each date market resolves No only if the US carries out a qualifying strike on Iran. 12 markets, $13.60M volume on Polymarket.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-16",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$13.60M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$646,641"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "12"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "October 16 98.2%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-10-31"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?",
    "slug": "us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
    "volume_usd": 13595531.017452998,
    "volume_24h_usd": 646641.352113,
    "end_date": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "October 16",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.982
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.018
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 96268.85266799998
      },
      {
        "question": "October 17",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9515
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0485
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 172192.48164299995
      },
      {
        "question": "October 18",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.92
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.08
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 22597.425001999996
      },
      {
        "question": "October 22",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.875
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.125
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 36096.531132000004
      },
      {
        "question": "October 24",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.845
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.155
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 8356.361818000001
      },
      {
        "question": "October 28",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.815
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.185
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 6769.414202
      },
      {
        "question": "October 31",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.785
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.215
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 3080676.8697559987
      },
      {
        "question": "November 8",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.64
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.36
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1791.104717
      },
      {
        "question": "November 15",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.535
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.465
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 235099.65689700007
      },
      {
        "question": "November 22",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.445
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.555
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 172.594975
      },
      {
        "question": "November 30",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.395
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.605
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 594819.8856990001
      },
      {
        "question": "December 31",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.31
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.69
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 488368.8837100002
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.9745
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.982
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.982
      }
    ],
    "analysis": [
      {
        "h": "What the market asks and how it resolves",
        "body": "The event asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through a set of dates, from October 16 to December 31. Each date is its own market. It resolves No if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by that date at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. A qualifying action is an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by the US that directly impacts Iran. Otherwise it resolves Yes. Threats, announced but unexecuted force, intercepted munitions, cyber operations, and artillery fire do not count."
      },
      {
        "h": "How traders price it now and how it moved",
        "body": "The October 16 market sits at 98.2%, up 0.7 percentage points over the last three half-day points, with a range from 97.5% to 98.2%. Pricing declines with time: 95.2% for October 17, 92.0% for October 18, 87.5% for October 22, 84.5% for October 24, and 81.5% for October 28. Odds fall to 64.0% for November 8, 53.5% for November 15, 44.5% for November 22, and 39.5% for November 30, reaching 31.0% at December 31. Total volume stands at $13.60M, with $646,641 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 active markets."
      },
      {
        "h": "How concentrated the odds are",
        "body": "Odds sit high for near-term dates and spread out as the horizon lengthens. Markets through October 31 all trade at 78.5% or above, while the November and December markets range from 31.0% to 64.0%. The steepest visible step runs from October 31 at 78.5% to November 8 at 64.0%, suggesting that the market's implied risk of a qualifying strike rises most sharply in early November. These are market-implied probabilities of Yes, not forecasts."
      }
    ],
    "drivers": [
      "A qualifying US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran resolves the relevant date market to No.",
      "Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact, surface-to-air strikes, and artillery or mortar fire do not count toward a No resolution.",
      "Threats, authorizations, or announced force that has not been executed do not trigger No; only executed strikes before the cutoff do."
    ],
    "faq": [
      {
        "q": "Does a threat of strikes resolve a market to No?",
        "a": "No. The resolution text excludes any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Only an executed qualifying strike directly impacting Iran by the specified date would resolve a market to No."
      },
      {
        "q": "What is the time cutoff for each market?",
        "a": "Each date market is judged at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on that specific date. The October 16 market therefore covers only qualifying actions occurring up to that cutoff, not later events."
      },
      {
        "q": "What do the percentages represent?",
        "a": "They are market-implied probabilities of Yes based on current Polymarket prices. They reflect what traders are paying, not forecasts or advice about how events will unfold."
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Iran",
      "Trump",
      "Israel",
      "Military",
      "Politics",
      "Geopolitics",
      "Middle East",
      "Israel x Iran"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Polymarket traders give the ceasefire a 98.2% chance of holding through October 16, easing to 78.5% by October 31 and 31.0% by December 31. Each date market resolves No only if the US carries out a qualifying strike on Iran.\n\n## What the market asks and how it resolves\n\nThe event asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through a set of dates, from October 16 to December 31. Each date is its own market. It resolves No if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by that date at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. A qualifying action is an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by the US that directly impacts Iran. Otherwise it resolves Yes. Threats, announced but unexecuted force, intercepted munitions, cyber operations, and artillery fire do not count.\n\n## How traders price it now and how it moved\n\nThe October 16 market sits at 98.2%, up 0.7 percentage points over the last three half-day points, with a range from 97.5% to 98.2%. Pricing declines with time: 95.2% for October 17, 92.0% for October 18, 87.5% for October 22, 84.5% for October 24, and 81.5% for October 28. Odds fall to 64.0% for November 8, 53.5% for November 15, 44.5% for November 22, and 39.5% for November 30, reaching 31.0% at December 31. Total volume stands at $13.60M, with $646,641 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 active markets.\n\n## How concentrated the odds are\n\nOdds sit high for near-term dates and spread out as the horizon lengthens. Markets through October 31 all trade at 78.5% or above, while the November and December markets range from 31.0% to 64.0%. The steepest visible step runs from October 31 at 78.5% to November 8 at 64.0%, suggesting that the market's implied risk of a qualifying strike rises most sharply in early November. These are market-implied probabilities of Yes, not forecasts.\n\n## Current odds\n\n- October 16: 98.2% (vol $96,269)\n- October 17: 95.2% (vol $172,192)\n- October 18: 92.0% (vol $22,597)\n- October 22: 87.5% (vol $36,097)\n- October 24: 84.5% (vol $8,356.36)\n- October 28: 81.5% (vol $6,769.41)\n- October 31: 78.5% (vol $3.08M)\n- November 8: 64.0% (vol $1,791.10)\n- November 15: 53.5% (vol $235,100)\n- November 22: 44.5% (vol $172.59)\n- November 30: 39.5% (vol $594,820)\n- December 31: 31.0% (vol $488,369)\n\n## What decides this market\n\n- A qualifying US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran resolves the relevant date market to No.\n- Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact, surface-to-air strikes, and artillery or mortar fire do not count toward a No resolution.\n- Threats, authorizations, or announced force that has not been executed do not trigger No; only executed strikes before the cutoff do.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**Does a threat of strikes resolve a market to No?**\nNo. The resolution text excludes any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Only an executed qualifying strike directly impacting Iran by the specified date would resolve a market to No.\n\n**What is the time cutoff for each market?**\nEach date market is judged at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on that specific date. The October 16 market therefore covers only qualifying actions occurring up to that cutoff, not later events.\n\n**What do the percentages represent?**\nThey are market-implied probabilities of Yes based on current Polymarket prices. They reflect what traders are paying, not forecasts or advice about how events will unfold.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
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  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}