{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Bitcoin above ___ on October 10? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"Bitcoin above ___ on October 10?\": 74,000 Yes 100%. 11 markets, $796,594.75 volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/bitcoin-above-on-october-10-2026.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-10",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-10T10:23:11.542Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$796,594.75"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$634,642.82"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "11"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "Yes 100%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-10-10"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Bitcoin above ___ on October 10?",
    "slug": "bitcoin-above-on-october-10-2026",
    "volume_usd": 796594.745801,
    "volume_24h_usd": 634642.820876,
    "end_date": "2026-10-10T16:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "74,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 85360.563616
      },
      {
        "question": "76,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 56599.589308
      },
      {
        "question": "78,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 120020.81672899997
      },
      {
        "question": "86,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 129654.63695300002
      },
      {
        "question": "88,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 80703.213655
      },
      {
        "question": "90,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 30357.328845
      },
      {
        "question": "92,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 14288.781726000001
      },
      {
        "question": "94,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 17323.413786000005
      },
      {
        "question": "80,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9955
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0045
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 81143.86768400001
      },
      {
        "question": "84,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9855
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0145
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 118009.49682
      },
      {
        "question": "82,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.965
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.035
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 63133.036679
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Bitcoin",
      "Weekly",
      "Multi Strikes",
      "Crypto",
      "Crypto Prices",
      "Recurring",
      "Hide From New"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and current pricing\n\nThe event asks whether Binance’s BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at noon ET on October 10, 2026 will have a final **Close** price above each listed threshold. It has 11 active markets and ends October 10, 2026. The quoted prices imply 100% market-implied probability of **Yes** at \\$74,000, \\$76,000, and \\$78,000, while implying 100% **No** at \\$86,000, \\$88,000, \\$90,000, and \\$92,000/\\$94,000.[1]\n\n## What the odds and volume imply\n\nThe displayed pricing places the market-implied boundary between \\$78,000 and \\$86,000: traders price the noon close as above the lower thresholds but not above the higher ones. These are market prices, not independent forecasts or guarantees; 100% quotes can still change before resolution. Total volume of \\$796,594.75 indicates substantial trading activity, though volume alone does not establish forecast accuracy. The odds would move if BTC prices, volatility, liquidity, or trading activity changed, or if participants revised expectations about the specified Binance candle. Resolution depends strictly on Binance’s final one-minute **Close**, not an average or another exchange’s price.\n\n- 74,000: Yes 100% (vol $85,360.56)\n- 76,000: Yes 100% (vol $56,599.59)\n- 78,000: Yes 100% (vol $120,020.82)\n- 86,000: No 100% (vol $129,654.64)\n- 88,000: No 100% (vol $80,703.21)\n- 90,000: No 100% (vol $30,357.33)\n- 92,000: No 100% (vol $14,288.78)\n- 94,000: No 100% (vol $17,323.41)\n- 80,000: Yes 100% (vol $81,143.87)\n- 84,000: No 99% (vol $118,009.5)\n- 82,000: Yes 97% (vol $63,133.04)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-10-2026"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/crypto"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.us/event/btc-range-day-2026-10-10"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.us/category/crypto"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}