AgentFlareWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?": Hormuz Agreement; R Senate No 95%. 3 markets, $1.04M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
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What the market is asking and current pricing
The market asks which outcome will occur: a Hormuz Agreement announced by October 23, 2026, followed by either Republican or Democratic control of the Senate, or no qualifying agreement. It ends November 4, 2026. Current market-implied odds are 89% for No Hormuz Agreement, versus about 6% for an agreement with Democratic Senate control and about 5% for an agreement with Republican control.[1]
What the odds and volume imply
The $1.04 million total volume and three active markets indicate substantial trading interest, while the pricing heavily favors no agreement. The conditional Senate outcomes are therefore being assigned a combined market-implied probability of roughly 11%, with the Democratic outcome modestly more likely than the Republican outcome. These are prices, not predictions. The odds would likely move most on an announced agreement meeting the market’s definition, credible evidence that negotiations cannot produce one before the deadline, or later election developments affecting Senate control. Settlement depends on both conditions in the agreement branches; otherwise, the market resolves to No Hormuz Agreement.[1]
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Hormuz Agreement; R Senate | No 95% | $553,451.67 |
| Hormuz Agreement; D Senate | No 94% | $195,313.75 |
| No Hormuz Agreement | Yes 89% | $295,897.34 |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-10-13. View on Polymarket ↗