{
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  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?\": Hormuz Agreement; R Senate No 95%. 3 markets, $1.04M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/who-wins-the-senate-pending-hormuz-agreement.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-13",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-13T00:37:01.650Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$1.04M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$477,347.33"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "3"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "No 95%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-11-04"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?",
    "slug": "who-wins-the-senate-pending-hormuz-agreement",
    "volume_usd": 1044662.7616429998,
    "volume_24h_usd": 477347.333412,
    "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.947
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.053
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 553451.6674019998
      },
      {
        "question": "Hormuz Agreement; D Senate",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.937
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.063
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 195313.75105699993
      },
      {
        "question": "No Hormuz Agreement",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.8875
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.1125
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 295897.34318400006
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Iran",
      "Senate",
      "Midterms",
      "Politics",
      "Elections",
      "Geopolitics",
      "United States",
      "Strait of Hormuz"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and current pricing\n\nThe market asks which outcome will occur: a Hormuz Agreement announced by October 23, 2026, followed by either Republican or Democratic control of the Senate, or no qualifying agreement. It ends November 4, 2026. Current market-implied odds are **89% for No Hormuz Agreement**, versus **about 6% for an agreement with Democratic Senate control** and **about 5% for an agreement with Republican control**.[1]\n\n## What the odds and volume imply\n\nThe $1.04 million total volume and three active markets indicate substantial trading interest, while the pricing heavily favors no agreement. The conditional Senate outcomes are therefore being assigned a combined market-implied probability of roughly 11%, with the Democratic outcome modestly more likely than the Republican outcome. These are prices, not predictions. The odds would likely move most on an announced agreement meeting the market’s definition, credible evidence that negotiations cannot produce one before the deadline, or later election developments affecting Senate control. Settlement depends on both conditions in the agreement branches; otherwise, the market resolves to **No Hormuz Agreement**.[1]\n\n- Hormuz Agreement; R Senate: No 95% (vol $553,451.67)\n- Hormuz Agreement; D Senate: No 94% (vol $195,313.75)\n- No Hormuz Agreement: Yes 89% (vol $295,897.34)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-wins-the-senate-pending-hormuz-agreement"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/politics/midterms"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/learn/election-markets/"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
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    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
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  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}