AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Traders price 99.2% odds of no qualifying US strike on Yemen by October 15
Traders price the October 15 market at 99.2% Yes, meaning no qualifying US strike on Yemen is priced in by then. Odds ease for later deadlines, reaching 65.0% for November 30.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
This event asks whether the US-Yemen ceasefire continues through a set date. Each market resolves to 'No' if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time on that date. A qualifying action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the US and directly impacting Yemen, carried out by US armed forces. Proxy, contractor, coalition-only, naval gunfire, cyber, and intercepted munitions do not count. Otherwise the market resolves 'Yes'.
How traders price it and how it moved
The October 15 market trades at 99.2%, the highest of four active markets. The other deadlines sit at 94.4% for October 18, 86.5% for October 31 and 65.0% for November 30. Prices fall as deadlines lengthen, consistent with more time for a qualifying strike. The October 15 contract started the recent eight half-day window at 83.5%, is up 15.7 percentage points, and sits at its high of 99.2%. Total volume is $1.84M, with $698,982 traded in the last 24 hours.
How concentrated the odds are
Odds cluster near certainty for near-term deadlines, at 99.2% for October 15 and 94.4% for October 18. Longer-dated markets carry more uncertainty, with October 31 at 86.5% and November 30 at 65.0%. The spread across deadlines shows traders assign rising chance of a qualifying US strike as time extends. These are market-implied probabilities reflecting current trader pricing, not forecasts or advice, and they can shift quickly on news.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| October 15 | 99.2% | $935,051 |
| October 18 | 94.4% | $1,264.24 |
| October 31 | 86.5% | $213,901 |
| November 30 | 65.0% | $182.46 |
What decides this market
- Any US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Yemen triggers a 'No' resolution.
- Strikes by proxies, contractors, or coalition forces without direct US participation do not qualify.
- Munitions intercepted before impact and surface-to-air missile strikes do not count toward resolution.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private mili…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What makes this market resolve No?
A US-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Yemen, carried out by US armed forces, before 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time on the market's date.
Do intercepted missiles count?
No. Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact do not constitute a qualifying military action, and surface-to-air missile strikes are excluded as well.
What do the odds represent?
Odds are market-implied probabilities of Yes for each market, reflecting current trader pricing rather than forecasts or advice.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.