{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Traders price the October 15 market at 99.2% Yes, meaning no qualifying US strike on Yemen is priced in by then. Odds ease for later deadlines, reaching 65.0% for November 30. 4 markets, $1.84M volume on Polymarket.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/us-yemen-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-14",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-14T00:37:01.849Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$1.84M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$698,982"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "4"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "October 15 99.2%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-10-31"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?",
    "slug": "us-yemen-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-14T00:37:01.849Z",
    "volume_usd": 1840989.7827479998,
    "volume_24h_usd": 698982.1240549999,
    "end_date": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "October 15",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.992
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.008
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 935051.132772
      },
      {
        "question": "October 18",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.944
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.056
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1264.243416
      },
      {
        "question": "October 31",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.865
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.135
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 213900.67917299995
      },
      {
        "question": "November 30",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.65
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.35
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 182.46346
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.835
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.915
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.915
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.935
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.945
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.9895
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.992
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.992
      }
    ],
    "analysis": [
      {
        "h": "What the market asks and how it resolves",
        "body": "This event asks whether the US-Yemen ceasefire continues through a set date. Each market resolves to 'No' if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time on that date. A qualifying action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the US and directly impacting Yemen, carried out by US armed forces. Proxy, contractor, coalition-only, naval gunfire, cyber, and intercepted munitions do not count. Otherwise the market resolves 'Yes'."
      },
      {
        "h": "How traders price it and how it moved",
        "body": "The October 15 market trades at 99.2%, the highest of four active markets. The other deadlines sit at 94.4% for October 18, 86.5% for October 31 and 65.0% for November 30. Prices fall as deadlines lengthen, consistent with more time for a qualifying strike. The October 15 contract started the recent eight half-day window at 83.5%, is up 15.7 percentage points, and sits at its high of 99.2%. Total volume is $1.84M, with $698,982 traded in the last 24 hours."
      },
      {
        "h": "How concentrated the odds are",
        "body": "Odds cluster near certainty for near-term deadlines, at 99.2% for October 15 and 94.4% for October 18. Longer-dated markets carry more uncertainty, with October 31 at 86.5% and November 30 at 65.0%. The spread across deadlines shows traders assign rising chance of a qualifying US strike as time extends. These are market-implied probabilities reflecting current trader pricing, not forecasts or advice, and they can shift quickly on news."
      }
    ],
    "drivers": [
      "Any US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Yemen triggers a 'No' resolution.",
      "Strikes by proxies, contractors, or coalition forces without direct US participation do not qualify.",
      "Munitions intercepted before impact and surface-to-air missile strikes do not count toward resolution."
    ],
    "faq": [
      {
        "q": "What makes this market resolve No?",
        "a": "A US-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Yemen, carried out by US armed forces, before 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time on the market's date."
      },
      {
        "q": "Do intercepted missiles count?",
        "a": "No. Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact do not constitute a qualifying military action, and surface-to-air missile strikes are excluded as well."
      },
      {
        "q": "What do the odds represent?",
        "a": "Odds are market-implied probabilities of Yes for each market, reflecting current trader pricing rather than forecasts or advice."
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Trump",
      "Yemen",
      "Military",
      "Politics",
      "Geopolitics",
      "Middle East",
      "Military Actions",
      "Military Strikes"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Traders price the October 15 market at 99.2% Yes, meaning no qualifying US strike on Yemen is priced in by then. Odds ease for later deadlines, reaching 65.0% for November 30.\n\n## What the market asks and how it resolves\n\nThis event asks whether the US-Yemen ceasefire continues through a set date. Each market resolves to 'No' if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time on that date. A qualifying action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the US and directly impacting Yemen, carried out by US armed forces. Proxy, contractor, coalition-only, naval gunfire, cyber, and intercepted munitions do not count. Otherwise the market resolves 'Yes'.\n\n## How traders price it and how it moved\n\nThe October 15 market trades at 99.2%, the highest of four active markets. The other deadlines sit at 94.4% for October 18, 86.5% for October 31 and 65.0% for November 30. Prices fall as deadlines lengthen, consistent with more time for a qualifying strike. The October 15 contract started the recent eight half-day window at 83.5%, is up 15.7 percentage points, and sits at its high of 99.2%. Total volume is $1.84M, with $698,982 traded in the last 24 hours.\n\n## How concentrated the odds are\n\nOdds cluster near certainty for near-term deadlines, at 99.2% for October 15 and 94.4% for October 18. Longer-dated markets carry more uncertainty, with October 31 at 86.5% and November 30 at 65.0%. The spread across deadlines shows traders assign rising chance of a qualifying US strike as time extends. These are market-implied probabilities reflecting current trader pricing, not forecasts or advice, and they can shift quickly on news.\n\n## Current odds\n\n- October 15: 99.2% (vol $935,051)\n- October 18: 94.4% (vol $1,264.24)\n- October 31: 86.5% (vol $213,901)\n- November 30: 65.0% (vol $182.46)\n\n## What decides this market\n\n- Any US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Yemen triggers a 'No' resolution.\n- Strikes by proxies, contractors, or coalition forces without direct US participation do not qualify.\n- Munitions intercepted before impact and surface-to-air missile strikes do not count toward resolution.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**What makes this market resolve No?**\nA US-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Yemen, carried out by US armed forces, before 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time on the market's date.\n\n**Do intercepted missiles count?**\nNo. Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact do not constitute a qualifying military action, and surface-to-air missile strikes are excluded as well.\n\n**What do the odds represent?**\nOdds are market-implied probabilities of Yes for each market, reflecting current trader pricing rather than forecasts or advice.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...? on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-yemen-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}