AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Guardians vs. Rays game-winner market prices near even at 53.5%
Traders price the Guardians vs. Rays matchup at 53.5% Yes, with spreads and innings totals spread across 12 active markets. The Spread -2.5 line has risen 6.0 percentage points over three half-day points.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The market asks who wins the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for October 13 at 8:00PM ET. A Yes outcome tracks the named team winning. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, it resolves 50-50. Official final statistics are the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting as backup if final stats are not published within 24 hours.
How traders price it now and how it moved
The game-winner line is at 53.5%, the headline matchup price in this event. Spread -2.5 sits at 78.5% and Spread -1.5 at 67.5%, while the O/U 6.5 total is at 66.5%. Spread -2.5 started the last three half-day points at 73.5%, is now at 79.5%, with a high of 79.5% and low of 73.5%, a change of +6.0 percentage points. Total volume is $560,401, with $559,797 traded in the last 24 hours.
How concentrated the odds are
Prices range from 50.0% to 78.5% across the twelve active markets. Several first-5-innings lines cluster between 50.0% and 62.5%, and both first-5-innings spread markets sit at 50.0%. Extra Innings is also at 50.0%. The highest-priced line is Spread -2.5 at 78.5%, so the market leans most strongly on that handicap, while many other prices sit near even.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Spread -2.5 | 78.5% | $1,831.92 |
| Spread -1.5 | 67.5% | $23,970 |
| O/U 6.5 | 66.5% | $157,789 |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 62.5% | $0 |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 57.5% | $491.58 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 53.5% | $301,355 |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 52.5% | $0 |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 51.0% | $0 |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 51.0% | $11.24 |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 50.0% | $0 |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 50.0% | $49.99 |
| Extra Innings | 50.0% | $13.34 |
What decides this market
- A win by the named team decides the outcome, so margins and innings totals do not affect resolution.
- A postponed game keeps the market open until completion, so the timing of the result can delay settlement.
- A full cancellation with no make-up game, or a tie, resolves 50-50, which pulls prices toward the midpoint.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for October 13 at 8:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not publish…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What happens if the game is postponed?
The market remains open until the game has been completed, so resolution waits for the result rather than closing early.
How is a tie or cancellation handled?
If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, the market resolves 50-50.
What source settles the result?
Official final statistics recognized by the governing body or event organizers are the primary source. If they are not published within 24 hours, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.