AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Fri, Oct 23, 2026
Traders price Musk's 280-299 tweet bucket at 47.0%, just ahead of 260-279 at 44.5%
Two adjacent buckets dominate this Elon Musk tweet-count event ending 2026-10-23, with 280-299 at 47.0% and 260-279 at 44.5%. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The market asks how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts on X between October 16 12:00 PM ET and October 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET. Main feed posts, quote posts and reposts count. Replies generally do not, though replies on the main feed are captured by the tracker. Deleted posts count if they remain available long enough to be captured, about five minutes. Resolution uses the Post Counter figure at xtracker.polymarket.com, with X itself as a possible secondary source if the tracker fails to update correctly.
How traders price it now and how that moved
The 280-299 bucket is priced at 47.0%, the highest of twelve active markets, while 260-279 sits at 44.5%. Together these adjacent ranges carry most of the implied weight. 300-319 is at 7.0%, and all remaining buckets are at 0.9% or lower. Over the last 16 half-day points, 280-299 started at 8.0%, reached a high of 47.0% and a low of 7.5%, and changed by 39.0 percentage points. The event has recorded $2.68M in total volume and $777,105 over 24 hours.
How concentrated the odds are
Pricing is heavily concentrated in a narrow band. The 280-299 and 260-279 buckets account for 47.0% and 44.5%, while 300-319 is at 7.0%. The remaining buckets are each at 0.9% or below, and most of the tail, from 340-359 through 460-479, sits at 0.3% or 0.1%. This pattern shows the market centering on a posting range around 260 to 299 rather than spreading probability broadly across outcomes.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| 280-299 | 47.0% | $114,410 |
| 260-279 | 44.5% | $141,316 |
| 300-319 | 7.0% | $122,130 |
| 320-339 | 0.9% | $110,446 |
| 240-259 | 0.5% | $268,179 |
| 340-359 | 0.3% | $149,384 |
| 360-379 | 0.1% | $167,089 |
| 380-399 | 0.1% | $152,604 |
| 400-419 | 0.1% | $129,297 |
| 420-439 | 0.1% | $91,261 |
| 440-459 | 0.1% | $59,152 |
| 460-479 | 0.1% | $56,034 |
What decides this market
- Only posts from October 16 12:00 PM ET to October 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET are counted toward the total.
- Main feed posts, quote posts and reposts count, while replies and community reposts generally do not.
- The Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com is the primary source, so tracker accuracy directly shapes resolution.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 16 12:00 PM ET to October 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https:…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Does a reply count toward the total?
Generally no. Replies are excluded, but replies on the main feed are counted by the tracker, so the outcome depends on where the reply appears.
What happens if the tracker fails to update?
X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source if the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the market rules.
What do the percentages mean?
They are market-implied probabilities of Yes for each bucket, reflecting current trader pricing rather than forecasts or investment advice.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.