AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Traders price Bitcoin above 82,000 at 94.4% and above 84,000 at 23.4% for October 13
Polymarket's Bitcoin strike ladder for October 13 shows high odds below 84,000 and thin odds above it. Probabilities are market-implied, not forecasts.
You're reading the full report — free for humans and search engines.
The same content ships as a structured JSON dataset (normalized facts, sources and
citation arrays, no HTML parsing) so AI agents can consume it directly — metered per fetch via the open
HTTP 402 payment protocol.
crawlerAutoPrice=true · verify at https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify
What the market asks and how it resolves
Each market in this event asks whether Bitcoin's price will be higher than a given strike at a set time on October 13. Resolution uses the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at 12:00 ET, read from the 'Close' price on Binance's trade page. Only Binance counts, not other exchanges or trading pairs. If the candle's final close is higher than the strike, the market resolves 'Yes'; otherwise 'No'. Price precision follows the decimal places shown by Binance. The event has 11 active markets and ends on 2026-10-13.
How traders price it now and how it moved
The strikes at 76,000 and 78,000 are priced at 100.0%, and 80,000 at 99.6%, while 82,000 sits at 94.4%. Odds fall sharply at 84,000, priced at 23.4%, then drop to 0.8% at 86,000. The 76,000 contract started its recent window at 98.9%, reached a high of 100.0% and a low of 96.2%, and is now at 100.0%, up 1.1 percentage points. Across the last 14 half-day points, that series stayed between 96.2% and 100.0%. These are market-implied probabilities from live trading, not forecasts.
How concentrated the odds are
Odds are concentrated at the low strikes: 76,000 through 82,000 sit between 94.4% and 100.0%. Above 84,000, the markets from 86,000 to 96,000 are each priced at 0.8% or lower, with several at 0.1%. The spread shows that most of the probability sits in a narrow band near the 84,000 strike. Traders are pricing a sharp cutoff rather than a broad range of outcomes.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| 76,000 | 100.0% | $89,985 |
| 78,000 | 100.0% | $99,945 |
| 80,000 | 99.6% | $178,297 |
| 82,000 | 94.4% | $217,019 |
| 84,000 | 23.4% | $76,780 |
| 86,000 | 0.8% | $167,917 |
| 88,000 | 0.2% | $115,291 |
| 90,000 | 0.1% | $39,241 |
| 92,000 | 0.1% | $13,453 |
| 94,000 | 0.1% | $4,106.58 |
| 96,000 | 0.1% | $4,194.99 |
What decides this market
- The 12:00 ET one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle close decides each market, so timing matters as much as price level.
- Only Binance's 'Close' price counts; other exchanges or trading pairs do not affect resolution.
- A close exactly at the strike would not be higher, so the market resolves 'No'.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Why do the 76,000 and 78,000 markets show 100.0%?
Those strikes are priced at 100.0% by the market, which implies traders see the outcome as near certain under current prices. Market-implied odds are not forecasts or advice.
Which price source decides resolution?
Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candles, using the 'Close' price at 12:00 ET, as shown on Binance's trade page with 1m and Candles selected. Other exchanges are not used.
What does a Yes or No mean here?
Yes means the 12:00 ET Binance candle closes higher than the strike in that market. No means it does not. Each strike is a separate market within the event.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.