{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Bitcoin above ___ on October 13? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Polymarket's Bitcoin strike ladder for October 13 shows high odds below 84,000 and thin odds above it. Probabilities are market-implied, not forecasts. 11 markets, $989,064 volume on Polymarket.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/bitcoin-above-on-october-13-2026.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-13",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-13T11:31:00.015Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$989,064"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$746,816"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "11"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "76,000 100.0%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-10-13"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Bitcoin above ___ on October 13?",
    "slug": "bitcoin-above-on-october-13-2026",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-13T11:31:00.015Z",
    "volume_usd": 989063.863577,
    "volume_24h_usd": 746816.002851,
    "end_date": "2026-10-13T16:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "76,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 89984.54317000002
      },
      {
        "question": "78,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 99945.07892799997
      },
      {
        "question": "80,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9955
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0045
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 178297.1333739999
      },
      {
        "question": "82,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.944
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.056
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 217019.39408299996
      },
      {
        "question": "84,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.2345
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.7655
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 76779.83870800002
      },
      {
        "question": "86,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0075
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9925
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 167916.69942099997
      },
      {
        "question": "88,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.002
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.998
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 115291.22085499999
      },
      {
        "question": "90,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 39240.989839999995
      },
      {
        "question": "92,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 13452.969627
      },
      {
        "question": "94,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 4106.5779999999995
      },
      {
        "question": "96,000",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 4194.9905
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.9885
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.977
      },
      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.979
      },
      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.962
      },
      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.9695
      },
      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.9815
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.9905
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.9945
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.9915
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.9905
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.9985
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.9965
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.997
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.9995
      }
    ],
    "analysis": [
      {
        "h": "What the market asks and how it resolves",
        "body": "Each market in this event asks whether Bitcoin's price will be higher than a given strike at a set time on October 13. Resolution uses the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at 12:00 ET, read from the 'Close' price on Binance's trade page. Only Binance counts, not other exchanges or trading pairs. If the candle's final close is higher than the strike, the market resolves 'Yes'; otherwise 'No'. Price precision follows the decimal places shown by Binance. The event has 11 active markets and ends on 2026-10-13."
      },
      {
        "h": "How traders price it now and how it moved",
        "body": "The strikes at 76,000 and 78,000 are priced at 100.0%, and 80,000 at 99.6%, while 82,000 sits at 94.4%. Odds fall sharply at 84,000, priced at 23.4%, then drop to 0.8% at 86,000. The 76,000 contract started its recent window at 98.9%, reached a high of 100.0% and a low of 96.2%, and is now at 100.0%, up 1.1 percentage points. Across the last 14 half-day points, that series stayed between 96.2% and 100.0%. These are market-implied probabilities from live trading, not forecasts."
      },
      {
        "h": "How concentrated the odds are",
        "body": "Odds are concentrated at the low strikes: 76,000 through 82,000 sit between 94.4% and 100.0%. Above 84,000, the markets from 86,000 to 96,000 are each priced at 0.8% or lower, with several at 0.1%. The spread shows that most of the probability sits in a narrow band near the 84,000 strike. Traders are pricing a sharp cutoff rather than a broad range of outcomes."
      }
    ],
    "drivers": [
      "The 12:00 ET one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle close decides each market, so timing matters as much as price level.",
      "Only Binance's 'Close' price counts; other exchanges or trading pairs do not affect resolution.",
      "A close exactly at the strike would not be higher, so the market resolves 'No'."
    ],
    "faq": [
      {
        "q": "Why do the 76,000 and 78,000 markets show 100.0%?",
        "a": "Those strikes are priced at 100.0% by the market, which implies traders see the outcome as near certain under current prices. Market-implied odds are not forecasts or advice."
      },
      {
        "q": "Which price source decides resolution?",
        "a": "Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candles, using the 'Close' price at 12:00 ET, as shown on Binance's trade page with 1m and Candles selected. Other exchanges are not used."
      },
      {
        "q": "What does a Yes or No mean here?",
        "a": "Yes means the 12:00 ET Binance candle closes higher than the strike in that market. No means it does not. Each strike is a separate market within the event."
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Bitcoin",
      "Weekly",
      "Multi Strikes",
      "Crypto",
      "Crypto Prices",
      "Recurring",
      "Hide From New"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Polymarket's Bitcoin strike ladder for October 13 shows high odds below 84,000 and thin odds above it. Probabilities are market-implied, not forecasts.\n\n## What the market asks and how it resolves\n\nEach market in this event asks whether Bitcoin's price will be higher than a given strike at a set time on October 13. Resolution uses the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at 12:00 ET, read from the 'Close' price on Binance's trade page. Only Binance counts, not other exchanges or trading pairs. If the candle's final close is higher than the strike, the market resolves 'Yes'; otherwise 'No'. Price precision follows the decimal places shown by Binance. The event has 11 active markets and ends on 2026-10-13.\n\n## How traders price it now and how it moved\n\nThe strikes at 76,000 and 78,000 are priced at 100.0%, and 80,000 at 99.6%, while 82,000 sits at 94.4%. Odds fall sharply at 84,000, priced at 23.4%, then drop to 0.8% at 86,000. The 76,000 contract started its recent window at 98.9%, reached a high of 100.0% and a low of 96.2%, and is now at 100.0%, up 1.1 percentage points. Across the last 14 half-day points, that series stayed between 96.2% and 100.0%. These are market-implied probabilities from live trading, not forecasts.\n\n## How concentrated the odds are\n\nOdds are concentrated at the low strikes: 76,000 through 82,000 sit between 94.4% and 100.0%. Above 84,000, the markets from 86,000 to 96,000 are each priced at 0.8% or lower, with several at 0.1%. The spread shows that most of the probability sits in a narrow band near the 84,000 strike. Traders are pricing a sharp cutoff rather than a broad range of outcomes.\n\n## Current odds\n\n- 76,000: 100.0% (vol $89,985)\n- 78,000: 100.0% (vol $99,945)\n- 80,000: 99.6% (vol $178,297)\n- 82,000: 94.4% (vol $217,019)\n- 84,000: 23.4% (vol $76,780)\n- 86,000: 0.8% (vol $167,917)\n- 88,000: 0.2% (vol $115,291)\n- 90,000: 0.1% (vol $39,241)\n- 92,000: 0.1% (vol $13,453)\n- 94,000: 0.1% (vol $4,106.58)\n- 96,000: 0.1% (vol $4,194.99)\n\n## What decides this market\n\n- The 12:00 ET one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle close decides each market, so timing matters as much as price level.\n- Only Binance's 'Close' price counts; other exchanges or trading pairs do not affect resolution.\n- A close exactly at the strike would not be higher, so the market resolves 'No'.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**Why do the 76,000 and 78,000 markets show 100.0%?**\nThose strikes are priced at 100.0% by the market, which implies traders see the outcome as near certain under current prices. Market-implied odds are not forecasts or advice.\n\n**Which price source decides resolution?**\nBinance BTC/USDT one-minute candles, using the 'Close' price at 12:00 ET, as shown on Binance's trade page with 1m and Candles selected. Other exchanges are not used.\n\n**What does a Yes or No mean here?**\nYes means the 12:00 ET Binance candle closes higher than the strike in that market. No means it does not. Each strike is a separate market within the event.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Bitcoin above ___ on October 13? on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-13-2026"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}