AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Traders price Elon Musk posting 360-379 times at 73.0% for the Oct 6-13 window
The market-implied probability for the 360-379 post-count range is 73.0%, leading the 380-399 range at 26.4%. The range has risen sharply over the recent history window.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The event asks how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts on X between October 6 12:00 PM ET and October 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. Only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts count. Replies do not count, although some main feed replies are captured by the tracker. Community reposts are excluded. The official figure is the 'Post Counter' on xtracker.polymarket.com, and X itself may serve as a secondary source if the tracker does not update correctly under the rules.
How traders price it now and how that moved
The 360-379 range trades at 73.0%, the leading bracket, while 380-399 sits at 26.4%. Over the last 21 half-day points, the 360-379 price started at 0.9% and now shows 73.1%, with a high of 73.1% and a low of 0.3%, a change of +72.3 percentage points. Total volume stands at $4.09M and 24h volume at $1.15M, indicating active trading. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts or advice.
How concentrated the odds are
Probability is heavily concentrated in two adjacent ranges. The 400-419 range sits at 1.8%, and the 340-359, 420-439, 440-459, 460-479, 480-499 and 500+ ranges each trade at 0.1%. The event contains 9 active markets. The tight clustering around 360 to 399 means traders see the count landing in a narrow band, with little pricing for tails at either end.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| 360-379 | 73.0% | $208,341 |
| 380-399 | 26.4% | $234,178 |
| 400-419 | 1.8% | $213,161 |
| 340-359 | 0.1% | $504,109 |
| 420-439 | 0.1% | $174,540 |
| 440-459 | 0.1% | $184,167 |
| 460-479 | 0.1% | $190,723 |
| 480-499 | 0.1% | $162,499 |
| 500+ | 0.1% | $293,835 |
What decides this market
- Only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts count, so replies and community reposts do not add to the total.
- The 'Post Counter' on xtracker.polymarket.com is the primary source, which sets the official tally.
- The window runs from October 6 12:00 PM ET to October 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET, fixing the start and end times.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 6 12:00 PM ET to October 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https:/…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does the 360-379 price of 73.0% mean?
It is the market-implied probability that Elon Musk's qualifying post count for the window lands between 360 and 379. It reflects current trading and is not a forecast or advice.
Do replies count toward the total?
Replies generally do not count. The rules note that some replies on the main feed may still be captured by the tracker, and deleted posts count if they remain available long enough to be captured.
What happens if the tracker fails?
If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source for the count.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.