US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? — Live Odds & Analysis

What the market asks and how traders are pricing it

This Polymarket event asks whether the U.S. and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by each contract’s deadline, with resolution at 11:59 PM ET; “yes” requires language clearly indicating hostilities have ended or will permanently cease. The market is large, with $335.32M in total volume across 6 active markets, and it runs through 2026-12-31. Current pricing is high across every listed expiry: June 15: 85% Yes, June 30: 92%, July 31: 94%, August 31: 96%, October 31: 96%, and December 31: 96%.

What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them

These prices imply traders see a very high market-implied chance of some qualifying deal by the later deadlines, with near-term contracts still elevated but less certain. The steep curve from 85% for June 15 to 96% by late-year suggests the market is pricing more time for diplomacy to produce an outcome. The very high volume indicates strong participation and active re-pricing rather than a thin market. Odds would likely move most on verified diplomatic announcements, formal signed text, or clear public confirmation of a permanent cessation framework; they would likely fall on failed talks, renewed military escalation, or ambiguity that does not meet the contract’s explicit wording.

Current market odds

Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-15. View on Polymarket ↗