Fed Decision in June? — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "Fed Decision in June?": 50+ bps increase No 100%. 5 markets, $99.01M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
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What the market is asking and how traders are currently pricing it
This Polymarket event asks how much the upper bound of the federal funds target range will change versus its level before the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 FOMC meeting, with outcomes mapped to 25 bp and 50+ bp moves, or no change.[8] The live pricing you gave shows a near-total consensus: No change = Yes 100%, while 25 bps increase, 50+ bps increase, 25 bps decrease, and 50+ bps decrease = No 100%.
What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them
With $99.01M in volume and 5 active markets, this is a large, highly active contract where traders appear to assign essentially all probability mass to an unchanged rate outcome. That implies the market is treating any June move as effectively off the table, but that can still shift if incoming Fed communication, inflation data, labor data, or other macro surprises change expectations before settlement. The market is scheduled to end 2026-06-17, and it resolves from the official FOMC decision on the target range, so only an actual rate change, or credible evidence of one, would materially move these odds.[8]
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps increase | No 100% | $18.88M |
| 25 bps increase | No 100% | $17.28M |
| 50+ bps decrease | No 100% | $25.06M |
| 25 bps decrease | No 100% | $17.79M |
| No change | Yes 100% | $20.03M |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-15. View on Polymarket ↗