US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...? — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?": June 12 No 100%. 3 markets, $55.47M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
This page is a free summary. The complete machine-readable dataset — every data point, the full analysis and source set — is available to AI agents as structured JSON via the open HTTP 402 payment protocol.
crawlerAutoPrice=true · verify at https://cdn.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify
What the market is asking and how traders are currently pricing it
This Polymarket asks whether the U.S. will officially announce an extension of the Iran ceasefire agreement, or announce a new peace, ceasefire-framework, or diplomatic agreement that keeps the ceasefire in place by the specified deadline. The live setup shows $55.47M in total volume, 3 active markets, and an open-ended expiry. Current pricing is highly date-dependent: June 12 = No 100%, June 13 = No 96%, and June 14 = Yes 100%.
What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them
The volume suggests a highly traded, heavily watched event, but the split across nearby dates shows traders are not pricing a single uniform outcome—they are pricing timing risk around an official announcement. The June 12 and June 13 “No” prices imply traders saw no qualifying announcement by those deadlines, while the June 14 “Yes” price implies a full official announcement is being priced in for that date. Odds would move most on any public U.S. statement that clearly matches the market’s settlement language; vague comments about talks, de-escalation, or informal understandings would matter less unless they amount to a formal announcement.
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| June 12 | No 100% | $8.45M |
| June 14 | Yes 100% | $2.54M |
| June 13 | No 96% | $4.28M |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-15. View on Polymarket ↗
Sources & citations
- https://predictionnews.com/story/polymarket-traders-price-26-odds-us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-december-d5cfce41
- https://www.actionnetwork.com/news/usa-to-announce-iran-agreement-ceasefire-polymarket-odds
- https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/all-news/article-893823
- https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/05/52764773/iran-ceasefire-extension-odds-drop-trump-social-media-post
- Polymarket via AISA API