AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Sun, Oct 25, 2026
Traders price the Spurs vs. Mavericks market at 86.5% on the Spurs side
The Oct 24 game market resolves on the final score, including overtime. Its 86.5% implied probability sits alongside 12 active markets and $1.69M total volume.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The market asks who wins the upcoming NBA game scheduled for October 24 at 8:00PM ET. A Spurs win resolves to 'Spurs' and a Mavericks win resolves to 'Mavericks', based on the final score including any overtime periods. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the game is completed. If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market resolves 50-50. The event shows $1.69M in total volume, $1.72M over 24 hours, and 12 active markets, with an end date of 2026-10-25.
How traders price it now and how it moved
The headline Spurs vs. Mavericks market sits at 86.5%, the highest-priced game outcome in the event. Point-spread markets step down as the margin widens: Spread -8.5 at 68.5%, Spread -10.5 at 62.0%, Spread -11.5 at 58.5%, and Spread -13.5 at 51.0%. The over/under 231.5 is at 59.0%. The Race to 30 market shows a history starting at 50.0%, now 50.0%, with a high of 50.0%, a low of 50.0%, and a change of +0.0 percentage points over the last 2 half-day points.
How concentrated the odds are
Pricing is spread across a wide ladder rather than concentrated in one outcome. The spread markets run from 68.5% down to 51.0%, reflecting different margin thresholds. Several side markets cluster tightly around a coin flip: Team to Score First at 50.5%, Odd/Even Score at 50.0%, Overtime at 50.0%, Race to 10 at 50.0%, and Race to 20 at 50.0%. These sit near even odds, suggesting little conviction on those specific outcomes.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Race to 30 | 97.5% | $0 |
| Spurs vs. Mavericks | 86.5% | $356,728 |
| Spread -8.5 | 68.5% | $454.70 |
| Spread -10.5 | 62.0% | $4,873.50 |
| O/U 231.5 | 59.0% | $52,848 |
| Spread -11.5 | 58.5% | $31,177 |
| Spread -13.5 | 51.0% | $163,359 |
| Team to Score First | 50.5% | $55.99 |
| Odd/Even Score | 50.0% | $0 |
| Overtime? | 50.0% | $0 |
| Race to 10 | 50.0% | $0 |
| Race to 20 | 50.0% | $0 |
What decides this market
- The final score decides the outcome, and overtime periods count toward the result.
- A postponement keeps the market open until the game is completed, delaying resolution.
- A cancellation with no make-up game resolves the market 50-50, which anchors low-conviction prices near 50%.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 8:00PM ET: If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Which team does the 86.5% price refer to?
The Spurs vs. Mavericks market at 86.5% reflects the implied probability of the Yes outcome, which the resolution text ties to a Spurs win. It is a market-implied probability, not a forecast.
What happens if the game is postponed?
If the game is postponed, the market remains open until the game has been completed. Resolution then follows the final score, including any overtime periods.
How is a canceled game settled?
If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market resolves 50-50. A make-up game would instead keep the market tied to that game's final result.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.