AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Match Winner quoted at 100.0% while Game 4 Winner sits at 50.5%
Live Polymarket odds for the LCS Promotion Playoffs match between Maryville University and Disguised. Match Winner reads 100.0%, most totals and handicap lines sit at the extremes, and probabilities are market-implied.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The market covers the LoL Grand final match between Maryville University and Disguised in the LCS Promotion Playoffs, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. It resolves to whichever team wins the match. If the match is canceled or ends in a tie, it resolves 50-50. A postponed match must be rescheduled to a start on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, otherwise it resolves 50-50 regardless of whether it is later played. Forfeits, disqualifications and walkovers resolve to the team that wins.
How traders price it now and how it moved
Match Winner is quoted at 100.0% and Game 1 Winner at 100.0%, while Game 4 Winner sits at 50.5%. Game 1 Winner moved from 56.0% to 100.0% over the last three half-day points, a change of +44.0 percentage points, with a low of 56.0% and a high of 100.0%. Prop markets including Any Player Penta Kill, Any Player Quadra Kill, Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors and Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor are each at 9.5%. Total volume is $647,239, with $641,315 traded in the last 24 hours.
How concentrated the odds are
Prices cluster at the extremes. The game handicap lines for DSG (-1.5) and DSG (-2.5), the O/U 3.5 Games and O/U 4.5 Games markets, and Game 3 Winner all read 100.0%, while the four prop markets read 9.5%. Game 4 Winner at 50.5% is the only reading near even. These are market-implied probabilities rather than forecasts, and the Game 4 Winner reading shows where pricing is least settled.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100.0% | $81,137 |
| Game 3 Winner | 100.0% | $151,191 |
| Match Winner | 100.0% | $269,732 |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100.0% | $4,672.71 |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 100.0% | $6,955.04 |
| Game Handicap: DSG (-1.5) vs Maryville University (+1.5) | 100.0% | $56,908 |
| Game Handicap: DSG (-2.5) vs Maryville University (+2.5) | 100.0% | $2,364.14 |
| Game 4 Winner | 50.5% | $222.00 |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 9.5% | $0 |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 9.5% | $0 |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 9.5% | $0 |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 9.5% | $0 |
What decides this market
- The team that wins the match decides resolution, with Maryville University or Disguised named in the resolution text.
- A canceled match or a tie resolves 50-50, so the absence of a completed result changes the payout outcome.
- A postponed match must be rescheduled to a start on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or it resolves 50-50.
Resolution rules
This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Maryville University and Disguised in the LCS Promotion Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Maryville University" if Maryville University win the match against Disguised. This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win the match against Maryville University. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET). If, by that deadl…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Why is Game 4 Winner at 50.5% when Match Winner is at 100.0%?
Each market is a separate contract with its own resolution text. Game 4 Winner resolves on a single game, while Match Winner resolves on the series outcome. Both figures are market-implied probabilities at this snapshot, not forecasts.
What happens if the match is postponed?
If the match is rescheduled to a start on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves on the result as played. Otherwise the market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is later played.
How should the 9.5% prop prices be read?
They are market-implied probabilities of Yes for markets such as Any Player Penta Kill and Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor. They reflect current trading prices and are not forecasts or advice.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.