AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Traders price 27.5% odds Indiana enacts a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028
Prices on this Polymarket event imply low odds of a statewide Indiana data center moratorium across all four deadlines. The longest-dated market is highest at 27.5%, and the shortest sits at 1.9%.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The event asks whether the State of Indiana will enact a law or constitutional provision establishing a statewide moratorium on new data centers before a set deadline. Each market uses a different cutoff: December 31, 2026, June 30, 2027, December 31, 2027 and December 31, 2028, all at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying measure must be binding and generally bar approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection or operation of all new data centers, or those above 100 MW per facility. Tax incentive suspensions and local or partial-state moratoria do not count.
How traders price it now and how it moved
The December 31, 2028 market, the longest-dated contract, is priced at 27.5% Yes. Over the last 26 half-day points, its history started at 47.5%, reached a high of 47.5% and a low of 14.5%. The current level is down 20.0 percentage points from the start of that window. Shorter-dated markets sit lower: December 31, 2027 at 12.5%, June 30, 2027 at 9.5%, and December 31, 2026 at 1.9%. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.
How concentrated the odds are
Odds rise steadily with time to deadline, consistent with a longer window allowing more time for a measure to pass. The spread runs from 1.9% at the earliest cutoff to 27.5% at the latest. Total volume is $5.46M across four markets, with $1.61M traded in the last 24 hours, indicating active trading. Prices imply low odds of enactment in any of these windows.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2028 | 27.5% | $618,303 |
| December 31, 2027 | 12.5% | $4.24M |
| June 30, 2027 | 9.5% | $400,324 |
| December 31, 2026 | 1.9% | $209,703 |
What decides this market
- Resolution requires a binding law or constitutional provision, not a local or partial-state measure.
- A measure must generally bar approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection or operation of new data centers statewide.
- Tax incentive suspensions alone do not qualify, but a subset covering facilities above 100 MW can.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Indiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption …
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Why do longer deadlines show higher prices?
Longer windows give more time for a qualifying law to be enacted, so the market-implied probability is higher. These figures are prices, not forecasts or advice.
Would a local government moratorium resolve Yes?
No. The resolution text excludes moratoria adopted by local governments or limited to part of the state.
Does suspending tax incentives count as a moratorium?
No. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications or economic development awards alone will not qualify under the resolution text.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.