AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Chiefs priced at 58.5% to win outright; Spread -13.5 line at 91.0%
Traders price the Chiefs at 58.5% to win outright and at 91.0% to win by more than 13.5 points. The event has $6.34M in total volume across 12 active markets.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The event covers one NFL game between the Chiefs and Seahawks, scheduled for October 25 at 8:20PM ET. Each market resolves to the team that wins the game, and overtime counts if played. A tie resolves 50-50, as does a cancellation with no make-up game. A postponed game keeps the market open until it is completed. Total volume stands at $6.34M across 12 active markets, with $5.78M traded in the last 24 hours.
How traders price it now and how it moved
The Chiefs win market is at 58.5%, while the Spread -13.5 line sits at 91.0%. That line has risen 9.5 percentage points over the last 56 half-day points, starting at 81.5% and reaching a high of 91.5%. Its low was 79.0%. The move has been upward across the window, and the current price sits near the high. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.
How concentrated the odds are
Probabilities fall steadily as the spread narrows, from 91.0% at Spread -13.5 to 61.0% at Spread -1.5, while the Chiefs win market sits at 58.5%. The steepest gap appears between Spread -3.5 at 72.0% and Spread -2.5 at 63.5%. Traders price a larger Chiefs margin as more likely than a narrow one, though these figures reflect market prices only.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Spread -13.5 | 91.0% | $68,110 |
| Spread -10.5 | 89.0% | $23,844 |
| Spread -9.5 | 87.5% | $19,547 |
| Spread -8.5 | 86.5% | $238.78 |
| Spread -7.5 | 85.0% | $1,519.61 |
| Spread -6.5 | 79.0% | $50,356 |
| Spread -5.5 | 77.0% | $15,564 |
| Spread -4.5 | 75.0% | $404.20 |
| Spread -3.5 | 72.0% | $803,972 |
| Spread -2.5 | 63.5% | $31,249 |
| Spread -1.5 | 61.0% | $6,098.84 |
| Chiefs vs. Seahawks | 58.5% | $3.40M |
What decides this market
- The final result decides it: a Chiefs win resolves the Chiefs market and a Seahawks win resolves the Seahawks market.
- Overtime is included if played, so extra periods do not change the resolution rule.
- A tie or a cancellation with no make-up game resolves 50-50, while a postponed game stays open until completed.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming NFL football game between Chiefs and Seahawks, scheduled for October 25 at 8:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if Chiefs win the game. This market will resolve to "Seahawks" if Seahawks win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Who decides this market's outcome?
The final result of the October 25 game decides it. A Chiefs win resolves the Chiefs market and a Seahawks win resolves the Seahawks market. Overtime counts if played.
What happens if the game is postponed or canceled?
A postponed game keeps the market open until the game is completed. A game canceled entirely with no make-up game resolves 50-50.
What do the percentages represent?
They are market-implied probabilities of a Yes outcome, reflecting current trader prices on Polymarket. They are not forecasts or advice.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.