AgentFlareNewswire · Macro & Fed · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
Odds of an October Fed rate hike fall to 20% after weak jobs report
Futures now price a 20% chance of a hike at the Oct. 27-28 Fed meeting, down from 71% on Sept. 28, after September payrolls rose just 29,000 and unemployment reached 4.2%.
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Fed hike bets collapse as jobs data softens and inflation cools
Futures traders see a 20% probability of a Fed rate increase at the Oct. 27-28 meeting, compared with 71% on Sept. 28. The September jobs report showed 29,000 new jobs against an expectation of at least 84,000, and unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Core PCE inflation eased to 3% year over year from 3.3%, and wage growth slowed. New York Fed President John Williams said on Sept. 29 there is no need for urgency. Minutes released Oct. 7 show the September decision, which lifted the rate to 3.75%-4%, was unanimous, and most participants still expected another hike by year-end.
Why it mattersA shift from near-certain tightening to a likely pause changes the outlook for stocks, Treasuries and the dollar heading into the late-October meeting.
CPI report and a Warsh speech headline a busy week
Investors will get September CPI this week, a fresh read on price pressure and the Fed's rate path. The Dow Jones estimate compiled by MarketWatch calls for a 0.6% monthly rise in CPI and 0.2% in core CPI on a seasonally adjusted basis. Annual CPI is expected at 3.7% and annual core CPI at 2.5%. A speech from Kevin Warsh is also on the calendar. Treasury ETFs were little changed in Friday after-hours trading, with TLT down 0.02%.
Why it mattersA hot or cool inflation print could quickly move the odds on the Oct. 27-28 decision and reprice rate-sensitive assets.
Big banks kick off earnings season on Tuesday
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report before the open on Tuesday. Per Fiscal.ai data, JPMorgan is expected to post EPS of $5.95 on revenue of $51.16 billion for the July-September quarter. Citigroup is forecast at $2.69 EPS on $23.5 billion of revenue, Goldman at $14.84 on $17.92 billion, and Wells Fargo at $1.79 on $22.37 billion. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock follow on Wednesday. UnitedHealth, Domino's and Johnson & Johnson also report this week.
Why it mattersBank results give an early read on trading, lending and credit conditions as the Fed weighs its next move.
Trump sets up inquiry panel targeting Fed Governor Lisa Cook
President Donald Trump created a 'committee of inquiry' on Friday to examine allegations that Fed Governor Lisa Cook made false statements in mortgage applications. A non-public White House hearing is set for Nov. 5, where the memo says Cook shall appear, with a transcript to be published. Her attorneys are weighing attendance and want to know whether the process is genuine. Kevin Hassett is named to the panel. The effort is the first time in the Fed's 113-year history that a president has sought to remove a governor.
Why it mattersPressure on Fed governors raises questions about central-bank independence, which can affect rate expectations and term premiums.
Consumer confidence hits lowest level since April 2014
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September from 88.6 in August, its weakest reading since April 2014 and below the pandemic low. The present-situation gauge dropped 7.9 points to 109.3 and the short-term outlook fell 5.9 points to 63.6. Payrolls rose only 29,000, and revisions removed 60,000 jobs from July and August combined. Average hourly wages rose 3% from a year earlier, the smallest annual gain since May 2021. Job openings slid to 7.08 million in August.
Why it mattersWeak sentiment and slowing hiring support the case for a Fed pause and add risk to consumer-driven earnings.
CBO director says growth alone cannot stabilize US debt
At a Minneapolis Fed conference, CBO Director Phillip Swagel said that with interest rates in the 4-5% range, real GDP would need to grow 5-6% a year and nominal GDP 7-8% to stabilize debt. He argued that faster growth also lifts spending and interest costs, so budget decisions on revenue and outlays will be needed. Gross public debt stands at $40 trillion, and the CBO projects debt-to-GDP rising to 120% in 2036. Real GDP grew 2.2% in the second quarter.
Why it mattersFiscal strain and higher debt-service costs can keep long-term yields elevated, complicating the Fed's task and bond-market pricing.
Data behind the stories
Equities held firm into the weekend, with SPY closing at $778.57 on Oct. 9, up 0.60% on the day and 2.74% over about a month. TLT is down 3.47% over the month while UUP is up 3.53%, and the Fed's policy rate is listed at 3.875%. JPM closed at $332.99, down 5.82% over about a month, ahead of Tuesday's earnings.
What to watch
- September CPI report this week; Dow Jones estimate is 0.6% monthly and 3.7% annual, with core at 0.2% and 2.5%. TradingView
- Fed policy meeting on Oct. 27-28, where futures price a 20% chance of a rate hike. theglobeandmail.com cryptorank.io
- White House hearing on Lisa Cook scheduled for Nov. 5, which Trump's memo says she shall attend. jamaica-gleaner.com
Key takeaways
- Futures odds of an Oct. 27-28 Fed hike fell to 20% from 71% on Sept. 28.
- September payrolls of 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2% are behind the shift in rate expectations.
- This week's CPI report and bank earnings are the next tests for markets.
FAQ
What are the odds the Fed raises rates in October 2026?
Futures markets price about a 20% chance of a hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting, down from 71% on Sept. 28, after a weak September jobs report and signs that inflation is cooling.
What is the Fed's current interest rate range?
The September meeting raised the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4%, according to minutes released Oct. 7. The decision was unanimous, and most participants expected another hike by year-end.
What does the September CPI report forecast show?
The Dow Jones estimate compiled by MarketWatch expects CPI up 0.6% for the month and 3.7% year over year, with core CPI up 0.2% and 2.5% annually.
The wire
Every item considered for this digest, newest first — published within 48h of 2026-10-11 23:59 UTC.
- What To Expect In Markets This Week: JPM, GS, C Bank Earnings, CPI Report, Kevin Warsh's Speech And More TradingView · 2026-10-11 13:13
- Expectations of Another Fed Rate Hike This Month Are Shifting Dramatically theglobeandmail.com · 2026-10-11 05:00 · +1 outlets
- Trump establishes committee to investigate Federal Reserve’s Lisa Cook in latest effort to fire her | Business jamaica-gleaner.com · 2026-10-11 05:00
- Inflation target of 2% may not stop the next Fed rate freeze | Market Analysis cryptorank.io · 2026-10-11 05:00
- CBO: US needs 5–6% real GDP growth to stabilize debt ua.news · 2026-10-11 02:08
- Fed chair Jerome Powell says he will stay on central bank's board after term expires next month abcnews.com · 2026-10-11 02:00
- Federal Reserve Reform: Let Markets Determine the Money Supply nationalreview.com · 2026-10-10 10:30
- Unemployment rate climbs as views of economy sinks | Business rockymounttelegram.com · 2026-10-10 10:00
How this digest is made. Headlines and article text come from the AISA Financial News and Tavily APIs; only items published in the last 48 hours are eligible, and duplicates across outlets are merged. A language model writes the summaries strictly from those texts and the live market data shown — every story links to its sources. Market data: AISA Financial, CoinGecko, Polymarket and Macro APIs.
Sources & citations
- Expectations of Another Fed Rate Hike This Month Are Shifting Dramatically theglobeandmail.com · 2026-10-11
- Inflation target of 2% may not stop the next Fed rate freeze | Market Analysis cryptorank.io · 2026-10-11
- Unemployment rate climbs as views of economy sinks | Business rockymounttelegram.com · 2026-10-10
- What To Expect In Markets This Week: JPM, GS, C Bank Earnings, CPI Report, Kevin Warsh's Speech And More TradingView · 2026-10-11
- Trump establishes committee to investigate Federal Reserve’s Lisa Cook in latest effort to fire her | Business jamaica-gleaner.com · 2026-10-11
- CBO: US needs 5–6% real GDP growth to stabilize debt ua.news · 2026-10-11