{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages\": Morocco Yes 100%. 12 markets, $10.23M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/world-cup-team-to-advance-to-knockout-stages.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-23",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-23T15:42:04.744Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$10.23M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$2.12M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "12"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "Yes 100%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-06-28"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages",
    "slug": "world-cup-team-to-advance-to-knockout-stages",
    "volume_usd": 10228456.268751998,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2119291.358032,
    "end_date": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Morocco",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9985
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0015
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 174982.39953700002
      },
      {
        "question": "Switzerland",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.998
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.002
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2288836.0816520005
      },
      {
        "question": "Japan",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 411634.1375239999
      },
      {
        "question": "South Korea",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.945
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.055
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 53153.78269300002
      },
      {
        "question": "Curacao",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9355
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0645
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 174414.559404
      },
      {
        "question": "Australia",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.925
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.075
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 148604.53244800027
      },
      {
        "question": "New Zealand",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.925
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.075
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 138087.78753699988
      },
      {
        "question": "Sweden",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.917
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.083
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 207029.26724699957
      },
      {
        "question": "Czechia",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.755
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.245
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 76516.62823299979
      },
      {
        "question": "Ecuador",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.735
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.265
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 103064.5210229997
      },
      {
        "question": "Bosnia and Herzegovina",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.69
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.31
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 104955.60222799996
      },
      {
        "question": "Iran",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.6295
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.3705
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 83730.83465
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "FIFA World Cup",
      "Sports",
      "2026 FIFA World Cup",
      "Soccer",
      "Team Props",
      "Tournament Futures"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What this market is asking and how it is priced\n\nThe Polymarket event “World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages” asks whether each listed nation will reach the knockout phase of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It resolves “Yes” if the team advances and “No” if it is mathematically eliminated or if the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market runs until June 28, 2026, and currently features 12 active national teams.\n\nTraders are pricing Morocco, Switzerland, and Japan at 100% “Yes”, implying the crowd assigns near‑certain chances of knockout qualification. South Korea is at 95%, Australia at 93%, and Sweden at 92% “Yes”. By contrast, Curacao and New Zealand are priced at 94% and 93% “No”, respectively, reflecting very low implied probabilities of advancement.\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\nThe $10.23 million total volume indicates substantial trading interest and relatively efficient pricing for these teams, especially the higher‑probability “Yes” outcomes. The 100% “Yes” prices for Morocco, Switzerland, and Japan suggest the market views their paths to the knockout stage as effectively secure, while the high “No” probabilities for Curacao and New Zealand signal broad consensus that they are unlikely to progress.\n\nThese implied probabilities would shift if on‑field results or group‑stage permutations change a team’s realistic qualification chances. For example, a loss or draw that mathematically eliminates a team would push its “Yes” price toward 0%; conversely, a strong result that opens a clear path to advancement would lift its “Yes” probability and likely attract fresh volume.\n\n- Morocco: Yes 100% (vol $174,982.4)\n- Switzerland: Yes 100% (vol $2.29M)\n- Japan: Yes 100% (vol $411,634.14)\n- South Korea: Yes 95% (vol $53,153.78)\n- Curacao: No 94% (vol $174,414.56)\n- Australia: Yes 93% (vol $148,604.53)\n- New Zealand: No 93% (vol $138,087.79)\n- Sweden: Yes 92% (vol $207,029.27)\n- Czechia: No 76% (vol $76,516.63)\n- Ecuador: No 74% (vol $103,064.52)\n- Bosnia and Herzegovina: Yes 69% (vol $104,955.6)\n- Iran: Yes 63% (vol $83,730.83)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/world-cup-team-to-advance-to-knockout-stages"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.polymarketworldcup.com"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket-wc26.com"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarketworldcup.com"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/cdn/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}