{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "World Cup: Golden Boot Winner — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"World Cup: Golden Boot Winner\": Scott McTominay No 100%. 12 markets, $8.85M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/world-cup-golden-boot-winner.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-15",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-15T01:19:16.018Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$8.85M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$2.23M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "12"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "No 100%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-07-20"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "World Cup: Golden Boot Winner",
    "slug": "world-cup-golden-boot-winner",
    "volume_usd": 8848555.309862996,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2232350.3577289996,
    "end_date": "2026-07-20T00:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Scott McTominay",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9985
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0015
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 144312.6307570001
      },
      {
        "question": "Rodrygo",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9985
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0015
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 200155.2309800001
      },
      {
        "question": "Amad Diallo",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9985
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0015
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 180861.51090600004
      },
      {
        "question": "Noah Okafor",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9975
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0025
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 198180.99616399998
      },
      {
        "question": "Jude Bellingham",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.996
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.004
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 105131.92563299998
      },
      {
        "question": "Deniz Undav",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9945
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0055
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 195365.72762200006
      },
      {
        "question": "Depay Memphis",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9945
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0055
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 54356.778963999976
      },
      {
        "question": "Raphinha",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.991
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.009
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 110254.87091000003
      },
      {
        "question": "Cristiano Ronaldo",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.961
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.039
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 232822.55242000008
      },
      {
        "question": "Lionel Messi",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9455
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0545
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 307310.86906700034
      },
      {
        "question": "Erling Haaland",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.925
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.075
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 249871.22284499928
      },
      {
        "question": "Kylian Mbappe",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.845
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.155
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 417810.33420299884
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "FIFA World Cup",
      "2026 FIFA World Cup",
      "Soccer",
      "Sports",
      "World Cup Awards"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## Market Scope and Current Pricing\nThis market asks traders to identify the 2026 FIFA World Cup’s top goal scorer, resolving to the player with the most goals across all main rounds. In case of a tie, FIFA’s official leader rules apply, prioritizing assists, then fewer penalty goals, and finally fewer minutes played. Currently, traders are pricing the market with extreme certainty that specific players—Scott McTominay, Rodrygo, Amad Diallo, Noah Okafor, Jude Bellingham, Deniz Undav, Depay Memphis, and Raphinha—will not win. Their implied probabilities of winning are effectively 0%, with most showing 99–100% odds against victory.\n\n## Volume Implications and Market Drivers\nThe $8.85M total volume across 12 active markets indicates high liquidity and strong speculative interest in this prediction. The current odds imply that the market has already eliminated a significant portion of the player pool, focusing attention on elite scorers like Mbappé or Kane. Volume and odds would shift only if new data emerges—such as injury reports, lineup changes, or early tournament results—that alters a player’s goal-scoring potential. Market-implied probabilities reflect collective trader sentiment, not guaranteed outcomes.\n\n- Scott McTominay: No 100% (vol $144,312.63)\n- Rodrygo: No 100% (vol $200,155.23)\n- Amad Diallo: No 100% (vol $180,861.51)\n- Noah Okafor: No 100% (vol $198,181)\n- Jude Bellingham: No 100% (vol $105,131.93)\n- Deniz Undav: No 99% (vol $195,365.73)\n- Depay Memphis: No 99% (vol $54,356.78)\n- Raphinha: No 99% (vol $110,254.87)\n- Cristiano Ronaldo: No 96% (vol $232,822.55)\n- Lionel Messi: No 95% (vol $307,310.87)\n- Erling Haaland: No 93% (vol $249,871.22)\n- Kylian Mbappe: No 85% (vol $417,810.33)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/world-cup-odds/golden-boot/"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.thelines.com/odds/world-cup/golden-boot/"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/331899798367841"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.foxsports.com/stories/soccer/soccer-2026-world-cup-odds-golden-boot"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://cdn.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
    "onboarding": "https://cdn.aisa.one/cdn/guide.html"
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  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}