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  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Which party will win the House in 2026? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Polymarket traders give the Democratic Party a 90.5% implied chance of controlling the U.S. House after the 2026 midterms, with the Republican Party at 9.5%. The market ends 2026-11-04. 2 markets, $17.85M volume on Polymarket.",
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  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-16",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$17.85M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$730,614"
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    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "2"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "Democratic Party 90.5%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-11-04"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Which party will win the House in 2026?",
    "slug": "which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
    "volume_usd": 17847320.734017003,
    "volume_24h_usd": 730614.0626279999,
    "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Democratic Party",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.905
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.095
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 10226322.341612002
      },
      {
        "question": "Republican Party",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.095
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.905
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 7620998.3924050005
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "09-16",
        "v": 0.875
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      {
        "t": "09-17",
        "v": 0.885
      },
      {
        "t": "09-17",
        "v": 0.885
      },
      {
        "t": "09-18",
        "v": 0.895
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      {
        "t": "09-18",
        "v": 0.895
      },
      {
        "t": "09-19",
        "v": 0.895
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      {
        "t": "09-19",
        "v": 0.905
      },
      {
        "t": "09-20",
        "v": 0.905
      },
      {
        "t": "09-20",
        "v": 0.935
      },
      {
        "t": "09-21",
        "v": 0.925
      },
      {
        "t": "09-21",
        "v": 0.915
      },
      {
        "t": "09-22",
        "v": 0.925
      },
      {
        "t": "09-22",
        "v": 0.925
      },
      {
        "t": "09-23",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-23",
        "v": 0.935
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      {
        "t": "09-24",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-24",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-25",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-25",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-26",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-26",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-27",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-27",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-28",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-28",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
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        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.935
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      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.935
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      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.935
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      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "10-06",
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      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.925
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      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.915
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      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.905
      },
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.905
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      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.905
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    ],
    "analysis": [
      {
        "h": "What the market asks and how it resolves",
        "body": "This market asks which party will control the U.S. House after the 2026 midterm election. A party wins control by holding a majority of voting seats. Seats count for the party under which each member was elected, and runoff results decide seats that go to a runoff. If no party wins a majority, control goes to the party of the first elected Speaker of the Congress convening after the midterm. The event has 2 active markets, a total volume of $17.85M, and ends 2026-11-04."
      },
      {
        "h": "How traders price it now and how it moved",
        "body": "The Democratic Party currently trades at 90.5%, while the Republican Party trades at 9.5%. Over the last 61 half-day points, the Democratic series started at 87.5%, peaked at 93.5%, and bottomed at 87.5%. It is up 3.0 percentage points over that window. Trading volume in the last 24 hours was $730,614. These figures are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts or advice."
      },
      {
        "h": "How concentrated the odds are",
        "body": "The two outcomes are priced as complements, so nearly all of the probability sits with the Democratic Party. The Democratic series has stayed within a band from its 87.5% low to its 93.5% high across the window. That range is narrow relative to the full zero-to-hundred scale, suggesting the market has been fairly stable. Total volume across the event stands at $17.85M."
      }
    ],
    "drivers": [
      "A party wins control by holding a majority of voting seats in the 2026 midterm House elections.",
      "Seats follow the party a member was elected under, even if they change affiliation before Congress organizes.",
      "If no party reaches a majority, the party of the first elected Speaker decides control."
    ],
    "faq": [
      {
        "q": "What happens if no party wins a majority of House seats?",
        "a": "The chamber is deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the Congress convening after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated."
      },
      {
        "q": "Does a member switching parties after the election change how a seat counts?",
        "a": "No. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected, even if the member changes affiliation or vacates the seat before Congress formally organizes."
      },
      {
        "q": "What do the percentages on this market mean?",
        "a": "They are market-implied probabilities of Yes based on live trading. They are not forecasts or advice about how the election will turn out."
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Parent For Derivative",
      "United States",
      "US Election",
      "Politics",
      "Midterms",
      "World Elections",
      "Elections",
      "Global Elections"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Polymarket traders give the Democratic Party a 90.5% implied chance of controlling the U.S. House after the 2026 midterms, with the Republican Party at 9.5%. The market ends 2026-11-04.\n\n## What the market asks and how it resolves\n\nThis market asks which party will control the U.S. House after the 2026 midterm election. A party wins control by holding a majority of voting seats. Seats count for the party under which each member was elected, and runoff results decide seats that go to a runoff. If no party wins a majority, control goes to the party of the first elected Speaker of the Congress convening after the midterm. The event has 2 active markets, a total volume of $17.85M, and ends 2026-11-04.\n\n## How traders price it now and how it moved\n\nThe Democratic Party currently trades at 90.5%, while the Republican Party trades at 9.5%. Over the last 61 half-day points, the Democratic series started at 87.5%, peaked at 93.5%, and bottomed at 87.5%. It is up 3.0 percentage points over that window. Trading volume in the last 24 hours was $730,614. These figures are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts or advice.\n\n## How concentrated the odds are\n\nThe two outcomes are priced as complements, so nearly all of the probability sits with the Democratic Party. The Democratic series has stayed within a band from its 87.5% low to its 93.5% high across the window. That range is narrow relative to the full zero-to-hundred scale, suggesting the market has been fairly stable. Total volume across the event stands at $17.85M.\n\n## Current odds\n\n- Democratic Party: 90.5% (vol $10.23M)\n- Republican Party: 9.5% (vol $7.62M)\n\n## What decides this market\n\n- A party wins control by holding a majority of voting seats in the 2026 midterm House elections.\n- Seats follow the party a member was elected under, even if they change affiliation before Congress organizes.\n- If no party reaches a majority, the party of the first elected Speaker decides control.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**What happens if no party wins a majority of House seats?**\nThe chamber is deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the Congress convening after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.\n\n**Does a member switching parties after the election change how a seat counts?**\nNo. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected, even if the member changes affiliation or vacates the seat before Congress formally organizes.\n\n**What do the percentages on this market mean?**\nThey are market-implied probabilities of Yes based on live trading. They are not forecasts or advice about how the election will turn out.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Which party will win the House in 2026? on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
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