# US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — Live Odds & Analysis

> Polymarket traders give the ceasefire a 98.2% chance of holding through October 16, easing to 78.5% by October 31 and 31.0% by December 31. Each date market resolves No only if the US carries out a qualifying strike on Iran. 12 markets, $13.60M volume on Polymarket.

- **Canonical:** https://agentflare.org/predictions/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt.html
- **Updated:** 2026-10-16
- **Category:** predictions
- **Full structured data:** `/predictions/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt.data.json` — $0.01 via AISA HTTP 402 (https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify; agents set crawlerAutoPrice=true)

## Key data

- **Total volume:** $13.60M
- **24h volume:** $646,641
- **Markets:** 12
- **Leading:** October 16 98.2%
- **Ends:** 2026-10-31

Polymarket traders give the ceasefire a 98.2% chance of holding through October 16, easing to 78.5% by October 31 and 31.0% by December 31. Each date market resolves No only if the US carries out a qualifying strike on Iran.

_…full analysis and the complete dataset are available to agents for $0.01 — fetch `/predictions/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt.data.json` (HTTP 402)._

## Sources

1. [US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt)
2. [Polymarket via AISA API](https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events)

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