{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Polymarket odds for the Champions League tie on October 13, 2026 put Club Atlético de Madrid at 49.5%, Manchester United FC at 24.5% and a draw at 24.5%. Total volume stands at $624,959. 3 markets, $624,959 volume on Polymarket.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/ucl-atm-mnu-2026-10-13.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-13",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-13T11:31:00.015Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$624,959"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$552,500"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "3"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "Club Atlético de Madri 49.5%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-10-13"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC",
    "slug": "ucl-atm-mnu-2026-10-13",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-13T11:31:00.015Z",
    "volume_usd": 624958.705139,
    "volume_24h_usd": 552499.685641,
    "end_date": "2026-10-13T19:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Club Atlético de Madrid",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.495
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.505
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 513059.8981699999
      },
      {
        "question": "Draw (Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC)",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.245
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.755
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 14257.977076999998
      },
      {
        "question": "Manchester United FC",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.245
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.755
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 98131.989892
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.43
      },
      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.43
      },
      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.435
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.445
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.445
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.445
      },
      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.445
      },
      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.455
      },
      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.455
      },
      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.455
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.455
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.465
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.495
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.495
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.505
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.505
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.505
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.495
      }
    ],
    "analysis": [
      {
        "h": "What the market asks and how it resolves",
        "body": "The event tracks the upcoming UEFA Champions League game scheduled for Tuesday, October 13, 2026 between Club Atlético de Madrid and Manchester United FC. Three markets sit under the event: one for each team winning and one for a draw. Each market's Yes price is its market-implied probability. The event ends on 2026-10-13, and the resolution text ties settlement to that scheduled fixture rather than to any later result or standing."
      },
      {
        "h": "How traders price it now and how it moved",
        "body": "Club Atlético de Madrid's Yes market sits at 49.5%, the highest of the three prices. Manchester United FC and the draw each sit at 24.5%. Over the last 26 half-day points, the Atlético series started at 43.0%, reached a high of 50.5% and a low of 43.0%, and now shows a change of +6.5 percentage points. Total volume is $624,959, with $552,500 traded in the last 24 hours, which points to recent activity."
      },
      {
        "h": "How concentrated the odds are",
        "body": "Most of the probability sits on the Atlético outcome, which holds 49.5% against 24.5% for each of the other two markets. That leaves the Atlético price well ahead of each rival price across the three active markets. These are market-implied figures from current trading, not forecasts of the result, and they can shift as new trades come in before the event ends."
      }
    ],
    "drivers": [
      "The match must take place on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, as the resolution text describes.",
      "Settlement is tied to the named fixture between Club Atlético de Madrid and Manchester United FC.",
      "The event ends on 2026-10-13, so the prices reflect trading up to that date."
    ],
    "faq": [
      {
        "q": "What does the Club Atlético de Madrid market pay out on?",
        "a": "It resolves on the outcome of the scheduled UEFA Champions League game on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 between Club Atlético de Madrid and Manchester United FC, according to the market's resolution text."
      },
      {
        "q": "Are these prices a prediction of the match?",
        "a": "No. The 49.5%, 24.5% and 24.5% figures are market-implied probabilities from current trading, not forecasts or advice."
      },
      {
        "q": "How much is trading in this event?",
        "a": "Total volume is $624,959, with $552,500 traded in the last 24 hours across three active markets."
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Sports",
      "Games",
      "Soccer",
      "UCL"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Polymarket odds for the Champions League tie on October 13, 2026 put Club Atlético de Madrid at 49.5%, Manchester United FC at 24.5% and a draw at 24.5%. Total volume stands at $624,959.\n\n## What the market asks and how it resolves\n\nThe event tracks the upcoming UEFA Champions League game scheduled for Tuesday, October 13, 2026 between Club Atlético de Madrid and Manchester United FC. Three markets sit under the event: one for each team winning and one for a draw. Each market's Yes price is its market-implied probability. The event ends on 2026-10-13, and the resolution text ties settlement to that scheduled fixture rather than to any later result or standing.\n\n## How traders price it now and how it moved\n\nClub Atlético de Madrid's Yes market sits at 49.5%, the highest of the three prices. Manchester United FC and the draw each sit at 24.5%. Over the last 26 half-day points, the Atlético series started at 43.0%, reached a high of 50.5% and a low of 43.0%, and now shows a change of +6.5 percentage points. Total volume is $624,959, with $552,500 traded in the last 24 hours, which points to recent activity.\n\n## How concentrated the odds are\n\nMost of the probability sits on the Atlético outcome, which holds 49.5% against 24.5% for each of the other two markets. That leaves the Atlético price well ahead of each rival price across the three active markets. These are market-implied figures from current trading, not forecasts of the result, and they can shift as new trades come in before the event ends.\n\n## Current odds\n\n- Club Atlético de Madrid: 49.5% (vol $513,060)\n- Draw (Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC): 24.5% (vol $14,258)\n- Manchester United FC: 24.5% (vol $98,132)\n\n## What decides this market\n\n- The match must take place on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, as the resolution text describes.\n- Settlement is tied to the named fixture between Club Atlético de Madrid and Manchester United FC.\n- The event ends on 2026-10-13, so the prices reflect trading up to that date.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**What does the Club Atlético de Madrid market pay out on?**\nIt resolves on the outcome of the scheduled UEFA Champions League game on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 between Club Atlético de Madrid and Manchester United FC, according to the market's resolution text.\n\n**Are these prices a prediction of the match?**\nNo. The 49.5%, 24.5% and 24.5% figures are market-implied probabilities from current trading, not forecasts or advice.\n\n**How much is trading in this event?**\nTotal volume is $624,959, with $552,500 traded in the last 24 hours across three active markets.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ucl-atm-mnu-2026-10-13"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}