{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?\": Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100%. 1 markets, $9.94M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-15",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-15T01:19:16.018Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$9.94M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$1.54M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "1"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "No 100%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-06-15"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?",
    "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15",
    "volume_usd": 9941669.738677124,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1540188.7051860003,
    "end_date": "2026-06-15T00:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9975
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0025
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 9951733.023677122
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "transit",
      "Iran",
      "Oil",
      "Economy",
      "Geopolitics",
      "ships",
      "Strait of Hormuz",
      "Hormuz"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and how traders are currently pricing it\n\nThis Polymarket asks whether **IMF Portwatch** will publish a **7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at 60 or higher** on at least one date between market creation and **June 15, 2026**; otherwise it resolves to **No**. The market is currently priced at **No 100%**, meaning traders are assigning essentially all market-implied probability to the negative outcome. [1][7]\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\nA **100% No** price implies the market sees the threshold as already out of reach or overwhelmingly unlikely to be met before resolution, at least based on current public information. Total volume of **$9.94M** suggests substantial participation and a relatively strong consensus, though volume by itself does not reveal direction beyond the current price. [7]\n\nWhat would move the odds is new IMF Portwatch transit-call data showing the 7-day average approaching or exceeding **60**, or credible evidence that the data series or resolution convention could change. Absent that, the pricing is likely to remain pinned near **No**.\n\n- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?: No 100% (vol $9.95M)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-may-15"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://cdn.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
    "onboarding": "https://cdn.aisa.one/cdn/guide.html"
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  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}