{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?\": Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73%. 1 markets, $22.35M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-15",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-15T01:19:16.018Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$22.35M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$2.07M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "1"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "No 73%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-06-30"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?",
    "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",
    "volume_usd": 22351364.59105605,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2072692.6168750017,
    "end_date": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.725
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.275
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 22398933.666851014
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Macro Geopolitics",
      "Hormuz",
      "Oil",
      "ships",
      "Strait of Hormuz",
      "Economy",
      "transit",
      "Iran"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and how traders are currently pricing it\n\nThis Polymarket asks whether **IMF Portwatch** will publish a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at **60 or higher** on any date from market creation through **2026-06-30**; if not, it resolves **No**. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, with vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch excluded from the count.\n\nTraders are currently pricing **No at 73%**, implying a market-implied **Yes at 27%** based on the quoted odds.\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\n**$22.35M** in volume suggests a well-traded market with meaningful information flow, so the price likely reflects a mixture of shipping data, geopolitical expectations, and any perceived evidence of traffic normalization. The current skew toward **No** indicates traders expect the 7-day average to stay below the 60 threshold through expiration.\n\nThe odds would move most if IMF Portwatch data show a sustained pickup in daily transit calls toward the resolution threshold, or if headlines point to durable changes in route availability, vessel behavior, or shipping conditions that could lift the 7-day average. If traffic remains constrained or the data stay well below 60, **No** would likely remain favored.\n\n- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?: No 73% (vol $22.40M)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/313628895752242"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/113299"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://laikalabs.ai/news/polymarket-hormuz-shipping-recovery-april"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.boston.gov/news/june-5-2026-traffic-advisory"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://cdn.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
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