{
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  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Presidential Election Winner 2028 — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"Presidential Election Winner 2028\": Eric Trump No 99%. 12 markets, $628.12M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/presidential-election-winner-2028.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-15",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-15T01:19:16.018Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$628.12M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$1.47M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "12"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "No 99%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2028-11-07"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Presidential Election Winner 2028",
    "slug": "presidential-election-winner-2028",
    "volume_usd": 628124994.0764143,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1467321.635312,
    "end_date": "2028-11-07T00:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Eric Trump",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9935
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0065
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 17383550.79699714
      },
      {
        "question": "Jalen Brunson",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9935
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0065
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 144982.396136
      },
      {
        "question": "Tim Walz",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9935
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0065
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 42435200.62920513
      },
      {
        "question": "Gretchen Whitmer",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9935
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0065
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 12653062.445648823
      },
      {
        "question": "Elon Musk",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9905
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0095
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 24766257.32733033
      },
      {
        "question": "Pete Buttigieg",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.976
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.024
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 4654925.940167964
      },
      {
        "question": "Josh Shapiro",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9705
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0295
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 6674532.686238907
      },
      {
        "question": "Jon Ossoff",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9565
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0435
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 4669043.791362979
      },
      {
        "question": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.943
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.057
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 12005966.332772862
      },
      {
        "question": "Gavin Newsom",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.8565
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.1435
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 16970787.8136951
      },
      {
        "question": "JD Vance",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.8495
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.1505
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 13575677.549414897
      },
      {
        "question": "Marco Rubio",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.8425
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.1575
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 10511808.043644983
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "World Elections",
      "Global Elections",
      "US Election",
      "Elections",
      "Politics",
      "Earn 4%",
      "President",
      "United States"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and how traders are currently pricing it\n\nPolymarket’s **“Presidential Election Winner 2028”** asks who will win the 2028 U.S. presidential election; it resolves to the winning candidate or **“No”** otherwise, using AP, Fox News, and NBC once all three call the race for the same candidate. The market ends on **2028-11-07** and has **$628.12M** in total volume across **12 active markets**. Current pricing shown is overwhelmingly on **“No”** for these names: Eric Trump 99%, Jalen Brunson 99%, Tim Walz 99%, Gretchen Whitmer 99%, Elon Musk 99%, Pete Buttigieg 98%, Josh Shapiro 97%, and Jon Ossoff 96%.\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\nThese odds are **market-implied probabilities**, so **99% “No”** means traders see each listed person as very unlikely to win the presidency under this contract. The high volume suggests substantial trading activity and information flow, but the quoted prices still reflect a market that is pricing these candidates far below a win. Moves would most likely come from shifts in candidate viability, nomination prospects, campaign developments, or major news that changes expectations about who could ultimately win the general election.\n\n- Eric Trump: No 99% (vol $17.38M)\n- Jalen Brunson: No 99% (vol $144,982.4)\n- Tim Walz: No 99% (vol $42.44M)\n- Gretchen Whitmer: No 99% (vol $12.65M)\n- Elon Musk: No 99% (vol $24.77M)\n- Pete Buttigieg: No 98% (vol $4.65M)\n- Josh Shapiro: No 97% (vol $6.67M)\n- Jon Ossoff: No 96% (vol $4.67M)\n- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: No 94% (vol $12.01M)\n- Gavin Newsom: No 86% (vol $16.97M)\n- JD Vance: No 85% (vol $13.58M)\n- Marco Rubio: No 84% (vol $10.51M)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.predictionhunt.com/hub/us-presidential-election"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/polymarket/presidential-election-winner-2028"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresperson/pres-person/kxpresperson-28"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.alphascope.app/odds/topic/presidential-election"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
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  "pricing": {
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    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://cdn.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
    "onboarding": "https://cdn.aisa.one/cdn/guide.html"
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  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}