{
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  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?\": Lucy Powell No 100%. 12 markets, $13.81M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
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  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-23",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-23T15:42:04.744Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$13.81M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$1.21M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "12"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "No 100%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-12-31"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?",
    "slug": "next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-122",
    "volume_usd": 13805391.914330004,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1206400.0664879999,
    "end_date": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Lucy Powell",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 607237.5902400019
      },
      {
        "question": "Kemi Badenoch",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 656275.1484690027
      },
      {
        "question": "Boris Johnson",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 361371.8123520004
      },
      {
        "question": "Ed Davey",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 582523.8542059984
      },
      {
        "question": "Bridget Phillipson",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 262707.4779120006
      },
      {
        "question": "Wes Streeting",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9985
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0015
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 683350.1119870001
      },
      {
        "question": "Ed Miliband",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9985
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0015
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 598498.9968039999
      },
      {
        "question": "Angela Rayner",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9975
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0025
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 821461.2515340021
      },
      {
        "question": "Nigel Farage",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9975
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0025
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1155440.5294029969
      },
      {
        "question": "Yvette Cooper",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9975
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0025
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 517871.04060699994
      },
      {
        "question": "Shabana Mahmood",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9975
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0025
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 730245.9320800012
      },
      {
        "question": "Andy Burnham",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9735
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0265
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1211363.640155996
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Politics",
      "England",
      "UK",
      "World",
      "PM",
      "Starmer",
      "Main Election",
      "UK Labour Leadership"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it\n\nThe Polymarket event “Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?” asks whether a specific named individual will be the next person officially appointed Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, excluding interim or caretaker PMs. Twelve such candidate‑specific markets are active, with total volume of $13.81 million. Current mid‑prices imply 0% probability that Lucy Powell, Kemi Badenoch, Boris Johnson, Ed Davey, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, or Angela Rayner will be the next PM by that date, meaning traders are pricing “No” as near‑certain for these individuals.\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\nThe combination of high volume and 0% “Yes” odds for these eight candidates suggests that traders collectively see them as extremely unlikely to become the next UK Prime Minister by the 2026‑12‑31 deadline. The market is effectively pricing in that either a different figure (not currently listed as a clear favourite) will be appointed, or that no new Prime Minister will be appointed by the cutoff. Any credible political development—such as a leadership challenge, resignation of the incumbent, or a major shift in party leadership or polling—could materially move these odds by changing the perceived likelihood of a named candidate being formally appointed.\n\n- Lucy Powell: No 100% (vol $607,237.59)\n- Kemi Badenoch: No 100% (vol $656,275.15)\n- Boris Johnson: No 100% (vol $361,371.81)\n- Ed Davey: No 100% (vol $582,523.85)\n- Bridget Phillipson: No 100% (vol $262,707.48)\n- Wes Streeting: No 100% (vol $683,350.11)\n- Ed Miliband: No 100% (vol $598,499)\n- Angela Rayner: No 100% (vol $821,461.25)\n- Nigel Farage: No 100% (vol $1.16M)\n- Yvette Cooper: No 100% (vol $517,871.04)\n- Shabana Mahmood: No 100% (vol $730,245.93)\n- Andy Burnham: Yes 97% (vol $1.21M)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket-deposit.co.uk/event/politics/next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-122"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2069046527612338269"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/2068775485576745153"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polyrama.io/markets/will-wes-streeting-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-137"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
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    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
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