{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?\": Belete Molla No 100%. 8 markets, $55.99M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-23",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-23T15:42:04.744Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$55.99M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$6.32M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "8"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "No 100%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-06-01"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?",
    "slug": "next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia",
    "volume_usd": 55987234.948134005,
    "volume_24h_usd": 6322394.7378940005,
    "end_date": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Belete Molla",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.998
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.002
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 9393858.540409004
      },
      {
        "question": "Berhanu Nega",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9955
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0045
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 16046340.750008008
      },
      {
        "question": "Adanech Abiebie",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 14282508.153256
      },
      {
        "question": "Gedion Timothewos",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9945
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0055
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 11456298.875698995
      },
      {
        "question": "Shimelis Abdisa",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9935
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0065
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 161846.4577929999
      },
      {
        "question": "Alesa Mengesha",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.992
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.008
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 3561284.9968999997
      },
      {
        "question": "Demeke Mekonnen",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.988
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.012
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1068528.4133999993
      },
      {
        "question": "Abiy Ahmed",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.96
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.04
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 68232.76066900002
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Ethiopia",
      "Elections",
      "Main Election",
      "Global Elections",
      "Politics"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it\n\nThe Polymarket event “Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?” asks which individual will officially assume the office of Prime Minister following the June 1, 2026 general elections, excluding interim or caretaker figures. The market comprises 8 outcome tokens, each representing a named candidate. As of now, traders price Abiy Ahmed at a 96% implied probability of becoming the next Prime Minister, with all other listed candidates priced at or near 0% (No 99–100%). The market is active and will resolve after the election outcome is confirmed.\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\nWith total volume of about $56 million, the market reflects substantial real‑money interest and a strong consensus that Abiy Ahmed is the overwhelming favorite. The near‑100% “No” pricing on other candidates suggests traders view them as effectively non‑viable under current conditions. The odds would likely shift only in response to material political developments—such as a credible change in ruling‑party leadership, a major electoral‑rule change, or a decisive shift in pre‑election polling or coalition dynamics—that meaningfully alters the perceived likelihood of an alternative candidate assuming the premiership.\n\n- Belete Molla: No 100% (vol $9.39M)\n- Berhanu Nega: No 100% (vol $16.05M)\n- Adanech Abiebie: No 100% (vol $14.28M)\n- Gedion Timothewos: No 99% (vol $11.46M)\n- Shimelis Abdisa: No 99% (vol $161,846.46)\n- Alesa Mengesha: No 99% (vol $3.56M)\n- Demeke Mekonnen: No 99% (vol $1.07M)\n- Abiy Ahmed: Yes 96% (vol $68,232.76)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ethiopia-pm-odds-on-polymarket"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ethiopia-pm-bets-top-5-5m"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://cryptorank.io/prediction-markets/next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2069038956369330305"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "name": "World Cup Winner ",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/world-cup-winner.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Presidential Election Winner 2028",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/presidential-election-winner-2028.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "World Cup: Golden Boot Winner",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/world-cup-golden-boot-winner.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "What price will Bitcoin hit in June?",
      "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june-2026.html"
    }
  ],
  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/cdn/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}